Korea Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Chips Slump as AI Doubts Hit KOSPI
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| KOSPI | 5,730.74 | -3.48% |
| KOSDAQ | 724.38 | -3.83% |
| USD/KRW | 1,333.44 | -0.34% |
| Samsung | 225,000.00 | -3.02% |
| SK Hynix | 1,418,000.00 | -7.08% |
| Brent Crude | 113.43 | -1.26% |
| Gold | 3,898.90 | -3.29% |
| Bitcoin | 77,792.35 | +0.46% |
| Korea 3Y Govt Yield | 3.71% | -6 bp |
| Korea 10Y Govt Yield | 4.01% | -7 bp |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Confidence Index | 106.60 | - | 105.40 |
| GDP Growth Quarter-over-Quarter Advance Estimate | 0.60 | 0.70 | 1 |
| GDP Growth Year-over-Year Advance Estimate | 3.70 | 3 | 3.40 |
| Business Confidence Index | 79 | - | 78 |
| Exports Year-over-Year | 83.70 | 93.20 | 93.70 |
Korea Policy Rate | Type: macro_line | Policy rate (%): 3 (2026-10-22) | Range: 1–3.5 | Trend(5pt): 1,3.5,3.5,2.5,3
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
- KOSPI plunged 3.48% to 5,730.74 and KOSDAQ fell 3.83% as AI capex doubts hammered chip and auto names; SK Hynix dropped 7.08% and Samsung 3.02%.
- Q3 GDP advanced 1.0% q/q and 3.4% y/y, beating consensus, while October exports jumped 93.7% y/y on the AI semiconductor cycle.
- Bank of Korea held its base rate at 3.00% on October 22; sovereign yields eased with the 10-year down 7 bp to 4.01% and the 3-year down 6 bp to 3.71%.
Yesterday's Recap
Korea's Q3 GDP advance estimate printed 1.0% q/q versus 0.7% consensus and 3.4% y/y against a 3.0% forecast, confirming the chip-led export boom is feeding through to activity. October exports rose 93.7% y/y, comfortably above the 93.2% consensus and up sharply from the prior 83.7% reading. Consumer confidence slipped to 105.4 from 106.6, and business confidence edged down to 78 from 79, suggesting households and corporates remain cautious despite strong headline growth.
Equities told a different story: the KOSPI fell 3.48% to 5,730.74 and the KOSDAQ dropped 3.83% to 724.38, with SK Hynix down 7.08% and Samsung 3.02% as AI spending doubts hit semiconductor and auto names. Rates rallied on the risk-off tone, with the 3-year yield easing 6 bp to 3.71% and the 10-year down 7 bp to 4.01%. USD/KRW slipped 0.34% to 1,333.44, reflecting a softer dollar and won resilience despite the equity selloff.
The Day Ahead
The calendar is empty for November 1, with no Korean data releases scheduled and no BoK events on the docket. Attention shifts to October CPI, due in the coming sessions, which will be the key input ahead of the November 26 Monetary Policy Committee meeting. Markets will also digest the AI-driven equity selloff and watch whether chip names stabilize, given their outsized index weight.
With exports running hot and growth beating forecasts, the data calendar offers little reason for the BoK to shift its hold stance. Global cues, including US tech earnings, will likely dominate direction for Korean risk assets in the near term.
Other Economic Notes
Financial stability concerns are building beneath the strong growth headline. The big five banks' loan delinquency rate rose to 0.42%, the highest in nine years and six months, with both household and SME loans deteriorating. The FSC is pushing an Accounting Framework Act and wider reviews of poor audits after flagging Korea's 55th-place global accounting ranking.
Korea's first GPU-backed loan, a 10.7 trillion won facility tied to a Naver Cloud deal and led by KB Kookmin Bank, signals growing private credit innovation in the tech sector. ↓ p.2
