Mexico Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Peso Firms Ahead of Mexico CPI Release
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| IPC Bolsa | 67,484.16 | +0.03% |
| USD/MXN | 17.45 | -0.15% |
| EUR/MXN | 19.96 | -0.14% |
| WTI Crude | 69.84 | +1.88% |
| Silver | 62.01 | +0.14% |
| Gold | 4,181.30 | +0.63% |
| Brent Crude | 73.36 | +1.90% |
| Bitcoin | 62,928.91 | -1.67% |
| Mexico Short-term Rate | 5.36% | -1.29% |
| Mexico Long-term Rate | 9.45% | +6.42% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
Mexico Consumer Confidence | Type: macro_line | Index: 43.53 (2026-05-01) | Range: 40.8–49.04 | Trend(6pt): 42.98,41.35,46.75,46.33,44.24,43.53
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday (2026-07-09) | |||
| Inflation Rate Month-over-Month | -0.21 | -0.14 | 04:00 |
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 3.94 | 3.51 | 04:00 |
- IPC Bolsa edges 0.03% higher to 67,484.16 while USD/MXN falls 0.15% to 17.45 on steady remittance inflows.
- Mexico short-term rate holds at 5.36% as markets price limited Banxico easing through year-end.
- July 9 inflation prints expected to show MoM at -0.14% and YoY cooling to 3.51%, supporting MXN resilience.
Yesterday's Recap
Mexican markets posted modest gains with IPC Bolsa closing at 67,484.16, up 0.03%. USD/MXN declined 0.15% to 17.45 while EUR/MXN slipped 0.14% to 19.96, reflecting peso support from equity inflows and record remittances. WTI Crude rose 1.88% to 69.84 and Brent gained 1.90% to 73.36, lifting energy-linked assets.
Mexico long-term rate jumped 6.42% to 9.45% as the curve steepened, while the short-term rate eased 1.29% to 5.36%. Silver and gold posted small advances, providing additional safe-haven bids for the peso. No major data releases occurred on July 6, leaving focus on positioning ahead of next week's CPI.
The Day Ahead
Markets will monitor June inflation figures due July 9 at 04:00 ET, with MoM consensus at -0.14% versus prior -0.21% and YoY seen at 3.51% after 3.94%. The prints will shape expectations for Banxico's August policy meeting. No other Mexico-specific releases appear on the calendar through July 8.
Trade balance data and Banxico's June expectations survey may also surface, offering fresh signals on growth and rate forecasts. Equity and FX desks remain focused on any shift in 12-month inflation medians.
Other Economic Notes
Nearshoring activity persists with new semiconductor supplier announcements targeting Chihuahua and Jalisco under USMCA rules-of-origin benefits. Public spending drove a rebound in fixed investment during April while private investment remained subdued. Toyota's planned $3.6 billion Texas facility signals potential shifts in auto supply chains amid tariff pressures, though core nearshoring momentum in Mexico stays intact.
Institutional capital inflows continue to favor Mexico given legal certainty and competitive tax frameworks.
Global Macro News
Rising WTI and Brent prices offer tailwinds for Mexico's energy export revenues and fiscal accounts. Bitcoin's 1.67% decline to 62,928.91 highlights risk-off flows that could pressure EM currencies broadly. U.S.
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