Mexico Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Mexico CPI Looms as Peso Slides on Tariffs
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| IPC Bolsa | 66,674.70 | -1.17% |
| USD/MXN | 17.58 | +1.15% |
| EUR/MXN | 19.88 | -0.50% |
| WTI Crude | 73.27 | +4.02% |
| Silver | 59.26 | -2.73% |
| Gold | 4,093.90 | -1.24% |
| Brent Crude | 77.31 | +4.25% |
| Bitcoin | 61,880.50 | -2.24% |
| Mexico Short-term Rate | 5.36% | -1.29% |
| Mexico Long-term Rate | 9.45% | +6.42% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
Mexico Short-term Policy Rate | Type: macro_line | %: 5.36 (2026-05-01) | Range: 3.19–8.79 | Trend(6pt): 3.19,6.2,8.67,7.75,5.43,5.36
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday (2026-07-09) | |||
| Inflation Rate Month-over-Month | -0.21 | -0.13 | 04:00 |
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 3.94 | 3.52 | 04:00 |
- IPC Bolsa fell 1.17% to 66,674.70 while USD/MXN rose 1.15% to 17.58 on tariff concerns.
- Mexico short-term rate held at 5.36% as long-term yields climbed 6.42% to 9.45%.
- July 9 inflation prints expected to show MoM at -0.13% and YoY at 3.52%.
Yesterday's Recap
Mexican markets closed lower on July 7 with the IPC Bolsa declining 1.17% to 66,674.70 amid profit-taking and fresh US tariff signals. USD/MXN advanced 1.15% to 17.58, underperforming regional peers as investors priced higher trade friction. The short-term rate remained at 5.36% while the long-term rate jumped 6.42% to 9.45%, steepening the curve.
WTI crude gained 4.02% to 73.27, offering limited support to the peso. No economic releases occurred, leaving sentiment driven by external headlines. EUR/MXN eased 0.50% to 19.88 as cross flows stayed muted.
Bitcoin and precious metals posted modest losses without offsetting local equity pressure.
The Day Ahead
July 9 brings Mexico’s Inflation Rate MoM and YoY prints at 04:00 ET, with consensus at -0.13% and 3.52% respectively. The MoM figure follows a -0.21% prior while the YoY reading is expected to ease from 3.94%. Markets will assess whether the slowdown supports further Banxico easing or signals sticky core pressures.
No speeches or minutes are scheduled. Traders will also monitor any follow-up comments on the Toyota production shift. The data will update Q3 inflation trajectories ahead of the next policy meeting.
Other Economic Notes
Toyota’s $3.6 billion Texas expansion and Tacoma relocation from Mexico highlight rising USMCA friction under renewed tariffs. The move aligns with President Trump’s emphasis on domestic manufacturing and could slow nearshoring inflows into northern states. Remittances data released earlier showed resilience, yet automotive supply-chain adjustments may weigh on future job creation.
Broader trade consultations on energy remain stalled, keeping bilateral risk elevated. These developments reinforce peso sensitivity to US policy signals.
Global Macro News
US tariff threats continue to reshape North American supply chains, directly affecting Mexican exports. Oil prices rose sharply with WTI at 73.27 and Brent at 77.31, providing a partial buffer for Mexico’s fiscal accounts. <i>↓ p.2</i>
