Mexico Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Mexico CPI Undershoots, Peso Weakens
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| IPC Bolsa | 66,609.64 | -0.10% |
| USD/MXN | 17.56 | +0.18% |
| EUR/MXN | 20.07 | +0.48% |
| WTI Crude | 73.68 | +0.22% |
| Silver | 59.45 | +2.21% |
| Gold | 4,119.90 | +1.20% |
| Brent Crude | 78.36 | +0.44% |
| Bitcoin | 62,728.05 | +0.76% |
| Mexico Short-term Rate | 5.36% | -1.29% |
| Mexico Long-term Rate | 9.45% | +6.42% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation Rate Month-over-Month | -0.21 | -0.13 | -0.27 |
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 3.94 | 3.52 | 3.37 |
Mexico Short-term Policy Rate | Type: macro_line | Policy Rate %: 5.36 (2026-05-01) | Range: 3.19–8.79 | Trend(6pt): 3.19,6.2,8.67,7.75,5.43,5.36
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
- June inflation cooled to 3.37% y/y and -0.27% m/m, both below consensus
- IPC Bolsa fell 0.10% to 66,609.64 while USD/MXN rose 0.18% to 17.56
- Mexico short-term rate held at 5.36% as long-term yields climbed 6.42%
Yesterday's Recap
Mexico’s June inflation data surprised to the downside, with the month-over-month rate printing at -0.27% versus the -0.13% consensus and the year-over-year rate falling to 3.37% from 3.94%. The softer print reinforced expectations that price pressures are moderating faster than anticipated. Equity markets reflected limited enthusiasm, as the IPC Bolsa closed 0.10% lower at 66,609.64.
The peso gave back some ground, with USD/MXN advancing 0.18% to 17.56 and EUR/MXN rising 0.48% to 20.07. Short-term Mexican rates remained anchored at 5.36%, while the long-term rate jumped 6.42% to 9.45%, steepening the curve. Commodity support was visible in gold and silver, which gained 1.20% and 2.21% respectively, though these moves had only marginal direct impact on Mexican assets.
The Day Ahead
No major Mexican data releases are scheduled for July 9 or July 10, leaving markets to digest yesterday’s inflation surprise. Attention will turn to any secondary releases on trade flows or remittances that could reinforce nearshoring momentum. Traders will also monitor USMCA-related commentary from officials on both sides of the border.
The absence of Banxico speakers keeps the focus squarely on incoming inflation prints and their implications for the next policy meeting. Positioning in USD/MXN is expected to remain light until fresh catalysts emerge.
Other Economic Notes
The IMF’s decision to lift its 2026 Mexico growth forecast while cutting the global outlook highlights the country’s relative resilience tied to nearshoring. Persistent trucking labor shortages flagged by the IRU could raise logistics costs and test supply-chain reliability in the auto and electronics sectors. Private-sector participation in power generation continues to ease earlier reform concerns, supporting investment sentiment.
Overall, the combination of softer inflation and steady external demand provides a constructive backdrop for Mexican assets despite global growth headwinds.
Global Macro News
The IMF lowered its 2026 global growth projection while upgrading Mexico, underscoring diverging regional prospects. Central banks in Egypt, Australia, and Canada face divergent rate paths amid mixed inflation and growth signals. <i>↓ p.2</i>
