Mexico Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Mexico CPI Undershoots, Peso Firms
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| IPC Bolsa | 66,107.28 | -0.75% |
| USD/MXN | 17.52 | -0.28% |
| EUR/MXN | 20.01 | -0.26% |
| WTI Crude | 71.98 | -0.14% |
| Silver | 59.94 | -0.73% |
| Gold | 4,101.10 | -0.71% |
| Brent Crude | 76.39 | +0.12% |
| Bitcoin | 64,267.11 | +1.70% |
| Mexico Short-term Rate | 5.36% | -1.29% |
| Mexico Long-term Rate | 9.45% | +6.42% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation Rate Month-over-Month | -0.21 | -0.13 | -0.27 |
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 3.94 | 3.52 | 3.37 |
Mexico Short-term Policy Rate | Type: macro_line | Policy Rate %: 5.36 (2026-05-01) | Range: 3.19–8.79 | Trend(6pt): 3.19,6.2,8.67,7.75,5.43,5.36
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
- June inflation printed softer than expected at 3.37% y/y and -0.27% m/m, opening room for Banxico easing.
- IPC Bolsa fell 0.75% to 66,107.28 while USD/MXN dropped 0.28% to 17.52 amid peso support.
- Mexico short-term rate held at 5.36% as long-term yields rose 6.42% to 9.45%.
Yesterday's Recap
Mexico’s June inflation rate came in at -0.27% month-over-month against a -0.13% consensus and -0.21% prior reading. The year-over-year rate eased to 3.37% from 3.94% previously, missing the 3.52% forecast. The downside surprise in goods and services prices lifted peso sentiment.
IPC Bolsa closed 0.75% lower at 66,107.28 as investors locked in gains after recent nearshoring rallies. USD/MXN fell 0.28% to 17.52 while EUR/MXN slipped 0.26% to 20.01. The short-term policy rate remained at 5.36% and the long-term rate climbed to 9.45%.
WTI crude edged down 0.14% to 71.98, offering limited support to the energy-linked peso. Silver fell 0.73% to 59.94 and gold declined 0.71% to 4,101.10. Bitcoin rose 1.70% to 64,267.11.
The Day Ahead
No major Mexican data releases are scheduled for July 10. Markets will monitor USMCA-related tariff developments and any follow-through from the soft CPI print. Traders will watch USD/MXN for continuation below 17.50 on sustained peso inflows.
Equity flows may stay light ahead of the weekend with IPC Bolsa likely range-bound near 66,000. Attention will turn to next week’s industrial production and any Banxico speakers for fresh policy signals.
Other Economic Notes
IMF upgraded its Latin America growth outlook, highlighting diverging paths between Brazil and Mexico. Nearshoring momentum persists despite U.S. tariff pressure that prompted Toyota to relocate some Mexico output to Texas.
Remittance inflows continue to underpin household spending and peso stability. Energy reform discussions in Congress remain stalled, leaving investment clarity limited for the sector. Mexico investigates whether U.S.
authorities misled on the 2024 capture of Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada García.
