Mexico Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Peso Holds Below 17 Ahead of Inflation Print
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| IPC Bolsa | 64,866.61 | -0.87% |
| USD/MXN | 16.91 | -0.01% |
| EUR/MXN | 19.65 | -0.05% |
| WTI Crude | 91.48 | +0.00% |
| Silver | 66.75 | +1.06% |
| Gold | 4,476.60 | +1.06% |
| Brent Crude | 96.28 | +0.00% |
| Bitcoin | 79,412.73 | -1.17% |
| Mexico Short-term Rate | 5.19% | -3.17% |
| Mexico Long-term Rate | 9.45% | +6.42% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
Mexico Short-term Rate | Type: macro_line | Policy Rate %: 5.19 (2026-06-01) | Range: 3.36–8.79 | Trend(5pt): 3.36,6.96,8.74,7.17,5.19
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday (2026-09-09) | |||
| Inflation Rate Month-over-Month | 0.03 | 0.25 | 04:00 |
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 3.12 | 3.30 | 04:00 |
- IPC Bolsa falls 0.87% to 64,866.61 while USD/MXN settles at 16.91
- Short-term Mbono rate eases to 5.19% as long-term rate climbs to 9.45%
- Mexico inflation data due September 9 with MoM consensus at 0.25%
Yesterday's Recap
No economic releases occurred on September 6. IPC Bolsa closed at 64,866.61, down 0.87%. USD/MXN finished at 16.91, down 0.01%, while EUR/MXN reached 19.65, down 0.05%.
WTI Crude and Brent Crude both ended flat at 91.48 and 96.28. Silver and gold each rose 1.06% to 66.75 and 4,476.60. Bitcoin declined 1.17% to 79,412.73.
Mexico short-term Mbono rate fell 3.17% to 5.19% while the long-term rate rose 6.42% to 9.45%, steepening the curve. Remittance inflows from Mexico alongside Bangladesh supported peso strength, keeping the currency below the 17 threshold against the dollar as noted in regional coverage. Equity markets showed limited reaction to the yield curve steepening observed on September 6.
The Day Ahead
No data releases are scheduled for September 7 or 8. Attention turns to September 9 when Mexico reports inflation. Month-over-month inflation is expected at 0.25% versus the prior 0.03%.
Year-over-year inflation is forecast at 3.30% against the previous 3.12%. Both prints carry medium impact and will shape expectations for Banxico policy at upcoming meetings. Markets will assess whether the modest acceleration alters the path for the 6.50% policy rate.
Peso reaction will depend on any surprise relative to consensus. Rising remittances continue to underpin peso resilience despite global volatility. Nearshoring trends remain supportive for Mexican manufacturing and exports under the USMCA framework.
Other Economic Notes
Trade tensions between the United States and Canada have not yet disrupted Mexico’s position in North American supply chains. The peso’s move below 17 has coincided with stronger inflows, limiting depreciation pressure. The peso’s stability near 16.91 and remittance support have kept markets pricing steady policy through year-end.
Short-term Mbono yields eased while long-term yields rose, producing a steeper curve consistent with contained near-term inflation risks. The September 9 inflation release will provide the next key input for forward guidance.
