Mexico Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Soft Inflation Print Steepens Mexico Curve
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| IPC Bolsa | 64,814.97 | -0.39% |
| USD/MXN | 16.93 | +0.13% |
| EUR/MXN | 19.67 | +0.07% |
| WTI Crude | 97.40 | +1.41% |
| Silver | 66.31 | -2.41% |
| Gold | 4,422.50 | +0.15% |
| Brent Crude | 102.37 | +1.15% |
| Bitcoin | 77,830.71 | -0.55% |
| Mexico Short-term Rate | 5.19% | -3.17% |
| Mexico Long-term Rate | 9.45% | +6.42% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation Rate Month-over-Month | 0.03 | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 3.12 | 3.30 | 3.26 |
Mexico Short-term Policy Rate | Type: macro_line | %: 5.19 (2026-06-01) | Range: 3.36–8.79 | Trend(5pt): 3.36,6.96,8.74,7.17,5.19
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
- Mexico August inflation printed below consensus at 0.20% MoM and 3.26% YoY.
- IPC Bolsa fell 0.39% to 64,814.97 while USD/MXN rose 0.13% to 16.93.
- Long-term Mbono yields climbed 6.42% to 9.45% despite the soft print.
Yesterday's Recap
Mexico’s inflation data for August showed MoM prices rising 0.20% against a 0.25% consensus and 0.03% prior, while the annual rate reached 3.26% versus 3.30% expected and 3.12% previously. The modest undershoot failed to shift market pricing aggressively. The IPC Bolsa closed 0.39% lower at 64,814.97 as investors digested the figures alongside global risk sentiment.
USD/MXN edged 0.13% higher to 16.93, and EUR/MXN gained 0.07% to 19.67. Short-term rates eased 3.17% to 5.19%, yet long-term yields surged 6.42% to 9.45%, steepening the curve. WTI crude advanced 1.41% to 97.40 and Brent rose 1.15% to 102.37, providing some support to the peso through energy linkages.
No Banxico speakers appeared during the session.
The Day Ahead
The domestic calendar contains no scheduled releases or Banxico events on September 10. Markets will therefore track external drivers including the upcoming US CPI print and any ECB signals on further tightening. Traders are expected to assess follow-through from yesterday’s softer inflation outcome and its limited impact on rate-cut expectations.
Peso flows may respond to movements in oil prices and US Treasury yields. Attention will also remain on any updates regarding the ICSID ruling on the Vulcan Materials dispute.
Other Economic Notes
An ICSID panel ruled that Mexico breached NAFTA obligations in its handling of Vulcan Materials’ limestone operations, raising questions about investor protections under legacy agreements. The government separately outlined a 15-year plan to maintain national oil output at 1.8 million barrels per day through 2039, signaling continued backing for Pemex despite its strained finances. These developments occur against a backdrop of steady nearshoring interest, though no fresh data on investment inflows emerged.
Broader fiscal measures, including adjustments to the Resico tax regime, may influence corporate planning in coming quarters.
Global Macro News
The ECB is widely expected to raise its main rate by 25 basis points today, lifting it to 2.5% amid persistent inflation pressures linked to geopolitical tensions. ↓ p.2
