Mexico Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Soft CPI Bolsters Banxico Easing Outlook
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| IPC Bolsa | 64,106.82 | -1.09% |
| USD/MXN | 16.97 | +0.47% |
| EUR/MXN | 19.67 | +0.12% |
| WTI Crude | 99.18 | -3.22% |
| Silver | 64.36 | +0.12% |
| Gold | 4,376.40 | +0.27% |
| Brent Crude | 103.87 | -3.49% |
| Bitcoin | 77,004.31 | +0.57% |
| Mexico Short-term Rate | 5.19% | -3.17% |
| Mexico Long-term Rate | 9.45% | +6.42% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation Rate Month-over-Month | 0.03 | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 3.12 | 3.30 | 3.26 |
Banxico Short-term Policy Rate | Type: macro_line | Policy Rate %: 5.19 (2026-06-01) | Range: 3.36–8.79 | Trend(5pt): 3.36,6.96,8.74,7.17,5.19
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
- Mexico September inflation missed consensus at 0.2% MoM and 3.26% YoY.
- IPC Bolsa fell 1.09% to 64,106.82 as USD/MXN rose 0.47% to 16.97.
- Ambassador signals US-Mexico alignment on tariff cuts this year.
Yesterday's Recap
Mexico released September inflation data on September 9 showing MoM prices rose 0.2% against a 0.25% consensus and 0.03% prior reading. The year-over-year rate printed 3.26%, below the 3.30% expected and up from 3.12% in the previous month. The softer prints suggest contained price pressures that could support gradual policy easing.
Equity markets reacted negatively with the IPC Bolsa dropping 1.09% to close at 64,106.82. The peso weakened as USD/MXN climbed 0.47% to 16.97 while EUR/MXN edged 0.12% higher to 19.67. Energy prices fell sharply with WTI Crude declining 3.22% to 99.18 and Brent Crude off 3.49% to 103.87.
Short-term Mexican rates eased 3.17% to 5.19% while long-term rates jumped 6.42% to 9.45%, steepening the curve. Gold rose 0.27% to 4,376.40 and silver gained 0.12% to 64.36, while bitcoin advanced 0.57% to 77,004.31.
The Day Ahead
No economic releases or Banxico events are scheduled for September 11. Markets will likely focus on follow-through from the softer inflation prints and ongoing US-Mexico trade discussions. The ambassador’s comments on tariff alignment could support sentiment toward Mexican assets if concrete progress emerges.
Oil output stability plans and the sharp Pemex budget cut will remain in focus for energy sector exposure. Investors may monitor global oil price moves given their direct impact on Mexican fiscal revenues and the peso. The absence of data leaves room for technical trading in USD/MXN around the 16.97 level, with attention also on how the steepening yield curve influences carry-trade flows.
Other Economic Notes
Mexico’s federal government outlined a 15-year plan to hold national oil output steady at 1.8 million barrels per day through 2039 despite Pemex operational pressures. President Claudia Sheinbaum’s proposed 2027 budget slashes state support for Pemex by nearly 70%, signaling tighter fiscal discipline. The Mexican ambassador to the United States indicated both countries are “pretty much aligned” on lowering US tariffs this year under the USMCA framework.
These developments highlight efforts to balance energy security with reduced state aid while advancing trade normalization. Nearshoring trends continue to underpin longer-term growth expectations for Mexican manufacturing exports, even as the stronger peso adds pressure on competitiveness.
