Nordics Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Norges Bank Set to Hold as Markets Diverge
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| OMX Stockholm 30 | 3,297.00 | -0.26% |
| Oslo Bors | 2,053.31 | +0.63% |
| OMX Copenhagen 25 | 1,838.94 | +0.25% |
| OMX Helsinki 25 | 6,239.94 | +0.20% |
| USD/SEK | 9.53 | +0.51% |
| USD/NOK | 9.50 | +0.06% |
| EUR/SEK | 11.00 | +0.39% |
| EUR/NOK | 10.95 | -0.04% |
| Brent Crude | 89.44 | +0.60% |
| Gold | 4,460.30 | +1.76% |
| Bitcoin | 63,671.81 | -0.37% |
| Sweden 10Y Govt Yield | 2.78% | +1.31% |
| Norway 10Y Govt Yield | 4.20% | -2.94% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
Norway 10Y Government Yield | Type: macro_line | %: 4.203 (2026-06-01) | Range: 1.42–4.33 | Trend(6pt): 1.42,3.123,3.58,4.017,4.33,4.203
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Norges Bank Interest Rate Decision | 4.25 | 4.25 | 04:00 |
| Thursday (2026-08-13) | |||
| Norges Bank Interest Rate Decision | 4.25 | 4.25 | 04:00 |
- Norges Bank set to hold policy rate at 4.25%
- Sweden manufacturing orders surge 29.9% YoY in June
- Oslo Bors gains 0.63% while OMX Stockholm 30 slips 0.26%
Yesterday's Recap
Nordic equity markets closed mixed on August 11 with no major data releases. Oslo Bors advanced 0.63% to 2,053.31 as Brent crude rose 0.60% to 89.44, supporting energy-exposed names. OMX Stockholm 30 declined 0.26% to 3,297.00 while OMX Copenhagen 25 and OMX Helsinki 25 posted modest gains of 0.25% and 0.20%.
Sweden’s new manufacturing orders jumped 29.9% year-over-year in June, underscoring industrial resilience. The Swedish 10-year government yield climbed 1.31% to 2.78% and the Norwegian 10-year yield fell 2.94% to 4.20%. USD/SEK rose 0.51% to 9.53 while USD/NOK edged up 0.06% to 9.50.
Recent Sweden CPI at 0.20% YoY and Norway CPI at 2.98% YoY continued to shape rate expectations ahead of today’s decision. Gold rose 1.76% to 4,460.30 and Bitcoin fell 0.37% to 63,671.81.
The Day Ahead
Norges Bank is scheduled to announce its interest rate decision at 04:00 ET with consensus pointing to a hold at 4.25%. Norway’s 2.98% YoY CPI reading and resilient mainland GDP will likely reinforce the bank’s cautious stance. Sweden, Denmark and Finland have no tier-one releases scheduled.
Market focus will remain on any forward guidance regarding the pace of future easing. Brent crude movements will continue to influence NOK valuation and Norwegian fiscal projections. EUR/SEK rose 0.39% to 11.00 and EUR/NOK fell 0.04% to 10.95.
Other Economic Notes
Sweden’s export-oriented manufacturing sector shows clear momentum from the June orders surge. Norway benefits directly from elevated Brent levels that bolster oil revenue and the sovereign wealth fund. Denmark’s economy remains anchored by the EUR/DKK peg while Finland operates under ECB policy.
Housing data in Sweden indicate tentative price stabilization but transaction volumes stay subdued. Regional electricity prices eased as hydro reservoirs recovered, trimming power futures. Norway struck oil in 1969 and built a sovereign wealth fund now owning stakes in nearly every major global company.
Global Macro News
Eurozone retail sales contracted unexpectedly in June, highlighting persistent weakness in consumption. Eurozone GDP expanded 0.4% in Q2, exceeding forecasts and led by Germany, France, Italy and Spain. <i>↓ p.2</i>
