Nordics Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Nordea Shifts to Riksbank Hike Call
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| OMX Stockholm 30 | 3,245.69 | -0.63% |
| Oslo Bors | 2,105.74 | -0.31% |
| OMX Copenhagen 25 | 1,909.01 | +0.58% |
| OMX Helsinki 25 | 6,407.84 | -0.38% |
| USD/SEK | 9.61 | -0.08% |
| USD/NOK | 9.31 | -0.13% |
| EUR/SEK | 11.14 | +0.00% |
| EUR/NOK | 10.81 | -0.36% |
| Brent Crude | 94.32 | -1.37% |
| Gold | 4,479.10 | +2.58% |
| Bitcoin | 77,687.82 | +0.37% |
| Sweden 10Y Govt Yield | 2.78% | +1.31% |
| Norway 10Y Govt Yield | 4.20% | -2.94% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
Sweden 10Y Yield | Type: macro_line | Sweden 10Y %: 2.781 (2026-06-01) | Range: 0.138–3.024 | Trend(5pt): 0.3806,1.974,2.43,2.42,2.781
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
- Nordea now expects the Riksbank to hike 25bp in November and again in February 2027.
- Nordic equities closed mixed, with Copenhagen outperforming while Stockholm and Oslo declined.
- Sweden’s July CPI at 0.18% y/y and Norway’s 2.98% y/y underscore diverging policy paths.
Yesterday's Recap
Nordic equity markets posted mixed results on September 2. OMX Stockholm 30 fell 0.63 percent to 3,245.69 while Oslo Bors slipped 0.31 percent to 2,105.74. OMX Copenhagen 25 rose 0.58 percent to 1,909.01 and OMX Helsinki 25 declined 0.38 percent to 6,407.84.
USD/SEK eased 0.08 percent to 9.61 and USD/NOK fell 0.13 percent to 9.31. EUR/SEK was unchanged at 11.14 while EUR/NOK declined 0.36 percent to 10.81. Sweden 10-year yields rose 1.31 percent to 2.78 percent while Norway 10-year yields dropped 2.94 percent to 4.20 percent.
Brent crude declined 1.37 percent to 94.32 dollars per barrel and gold rose 2.58 percent to 4,479.10. Bitcoin gained 0.37 percent to 77,687.82. Nordea revised its Riksbank forecast higher, citing Sweden’s better-than-normal economic performance and July CPI of 0.18 percent year-over-year.
The Day Ahead
Markets face a quiet calendar with no major Nordic data releases scheduled for September 3. Attention will remain on follow-through from Nordea’s updated Riksbank call and any comments from Norges Bank officials. Currency traders will monitor EUR/SEK and EUR/NOK for signs of further divergence.
Equity investors may focus on sector rotation in Copenhagen amid the Danish index outperformance. Bond auctions remain absent, leaving yield movements driven by global flows. Oil price action will continue to shape NOK sentiment given Norway’s fiscal exposure.
Electricity prices on Nord Pool averaged lower on strong hydro and wind output, supporting regional power consumers.
Other Economic Notes
Sweden’s July CPI at 0.18 percent year-over-year signals persistent disinflation that supports eventual policy normalization. Norway’s July CPI at 2.98 percent year-over-year keeps Norges Bank on a tighter path relative to peers. Danish manufacturing exports remain sensitive to euro-area demand while the krone peg limits independent rate moves.
Finnish export performance to the US continues to offset softer domestic indicators within the eurozone framework. Housing data weakness in Sweden persists as a drag on near-term growth readings. Norges Bank’s proposed reduction in government-bond holdings within the oil fund may modestly influence longer Norwegian yields without altering the near-term rate outlook.
