Riksbank Signals More Hikes; NOK Inflation Cools

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Riksbank Signals More Hikes; NOK Inflation Cools

OMX Stockholm 303,327.75+0.54%

Oslo Bors2,081.41+0.09%

OMX Copenhagen 252,000.55-0.88%

OMX Helsinki 256,282.48+0.06%

Market Snapshot

Asset	Level	Change
OMX Stockholm 30	3,327.75	+0.54%
Oslo Bors	2,081.41	+0.09%
OMX Copenhagen 25	2,000.55	-0.88%
OMX Helsinki 25	6,282.48	+0.06%
USD/SEK	9.87	+0.72%
USD/NOK	9.50	+1.03%
EUR/SEK	11.02	+0.21%
EUR/NOK	10.61	+0.52%
Brent Crude	92.40	+0.99%
Gold	4,054.50	+0.60%
Bitcoin	73,664.27	-2.07%
Sweden 10Y Govt Yield	2.97%	-1 bp
Norway 10Y Govt Yield	-	-

Prior Economic Events

Data	Prior	Cons	Actual
No events available

Today's Economic Events

Data	Prior	Cons	Time
No events available

Riksbank November minutes flag further rate increases ahead, reinforcing the hawkish tilt after the 4 November +25bp hike to 2.00%.
Norwegian core inflation cooled in October, easing pressure on Norges Bank to follow through with another hike from 4.50%.
SEK and NOK both weakened against the dollar, with USD/NOK up over 1% as Brent pushed toward $92.40.

Yesterday's Recap

Sweden dominated the Nordic narrative on Tuesday, with the Riksbank's November minutes showing the committee expects to raise the key rate again in the coming year, a signal that reinforced the hawkish message delivered at the 4 November decision, when the policy rate was lifted 25bp to 2.00%. Swedish equities were firm, with the OMX Stockholm 30 up 0.54% to 3,327.75, while the 10-year government yield eased 1 bp to 2.97%. The krona remained soft despite the hawkish minutes, with USD/SEK up 0.72% to 9.87 and EUR/SEK 0.21% higher at 11.02; SEB's outlook sees the krona recovering lost ground next year, targeting 10.55 against the euro and 9.02 against the dollar by end-2027.

In Norway, October core inflation cooled, easing pressure on Norges Bank after its September hike to 4.50%, though headline CPI remains at 3.60% year-on-year. Oslo Bors edged up 0.09% to 2,081.41, with USD/NOK up 1.03% to 9.50 and EUR/NOK 0.52% higher at 10.61. Denmark lagged, with the OMX Copenhagen 25 down 0.88% to 2,000.55, while Finland's OMX Helsinki 25 was essentially flat, up 0.06% at 6,282.48.

The Day Ahead

The Nordic calendar is light on Wednesday, with no major scheduled releases across the four countries, leaving markets to digest the Riksbank minutes and the Norwegian inflation print. Attention turns to the Swedish parliament, which votes on Wednesday on a constitutional change enabling dual citizens convicted of crimes harming Sweden's vital interests to have citizenship revoked — a political rather than market event, but one worth monitoring for sentiment. With no domestic data to steer direction, SEK and NOK will trade on euro-area and global risk appetite, and Danish rates will continue to track ECB expectations given the EUR/DKK peg.

Finnish markets will likewise take their cue from broader eurozone developments rather than local catalysts. The next meaningful Nordic event risk sits further out, with the Riksbank's next decision on 16 December and Norges Bank on 17 December.

Other Economic Notes

The Nordic growth picture remains bifurcated, with oil-linked Norway supported by Brent near $92.40 while Sweden's export-oriented manufacturing sector contends with a soft krona and subdued inflation at 1.10% year-on-year. Denmark's equity underperformance on Tuesday stands out against firmer Swedish and Norwegian bourses, a reminder that Copenhagen's index is heavily weighted toward a handful of large-cap names sensitive to global risk sentiment. ↓ p.2

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Other Economic Notes (continued)

Finland's flat session reflects its position inside the eurozone, where ECB policy dominates and local data rarely moves markets on its own. Housing remains a key Swedish vulnerability, with the Riksbank's hawkish path likely to keep mortgage rates elevated and cap any near-term rebound in household credit.

Global Macro News

US CPI remains the dominant global theme, with inflation persistence keeping Federal Reserve expectations volatile and feeding through to dollar strength that has weighed on both SEK and NOK. The Bank of Canada kept the door open to further hikes as an oil shock clouds its outlook, a signal that commodity-driven inflation is complicating the global easing narrative. The Bank of England's Bailey noted AI investment is already helping the UK economy, underscoring a broader productivity theme across advanced economies.

Energy remains the key tail risk, with the Dallas Fed highlighting both tailwinds and resiliency in the energy-economy nexus, while Brent's push toward $92.40 directly supports Norway's fiscal outlook. Gold at $4,054.50 and Bitcoin down 2.07% to $73,664.27 suggest mixed risk appetite, with crypto weakness contrasting with firm equity markets. Eurogroup silence on energy price hikes across Europe remains a political undercurrent for Finland and the broader eurozone.

Nordic Central Banks Watch

The Riksbank's November minutes confirm the committee expects to raise the key rate again in the coming year, reinforcing the hawkish stance set at the 4 November decision, when the rate was lifted 25bp to 2.00%; the next meeting is 16 December. ↓ p.3

Continuation

Nordic Central Banks Watch (continued)

Norges Bank, which last moved with a 25bp hike to 4.50% at the 24 September decision and held on 5 November, faces a cooler October core inflation print that reduces the case for another increase at its 17 December meeting, though headline CPI at 3.60% keeps the committee cautious. Danmarks Nationalbank will continue to mirror ECB policy to defend the EUR/DKK peg, with no independent action expected absent a sustained peg test. The Bank of Finland operates directly under the ECB, so Finnish rates follow Frankfurt without local discretion.

The key divergence is between Sweden's explicit tightening bias and Norway's more data-dependent posture, with the krone's weakness adding an imported-inflation channel that both central banks will watch closely.

Nordics Macro Daily(Beta Mode)