UK Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
BoE Rules Out Cuts as PMI Signals Contraction
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| FTSE 100 | 10,679.00 | +0.25% |
| FTSE 250 | 23,558.28 | +0.08% |
| GBP/USD | 1.33 | -0.00% |
| GBP/EUR | 1.17 | +0.01% |
| GBP/JPY | 216.44 | +0.51% |
| Brent Crude | 71.67 | -0.18% |
| Gold | 4,152.30 | +0.96% |
| UK Nat Gas | 3.23 | +1.06% |
| Bitcoin | 62,631.90 | -1.44% |
| UK 2Y Gilt | - | - |
| UK 10Y Gilt | 4.94% | +2.51% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
UK House Prices (BIS) | Type: macro_line | House Price Index YoY %: -2.163 (2026-01-01) | Range: -7.308–2.258 | Trend(6pt): 2.258,-1.561,-6.356,-0.04994,-1.072,-2.163
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P Global Construction PMI | - | 40.10 | 00:30 |
| Tuesday (2026-07-07) | |||
| Halifax House Price Index Month-over-Month | -0.10 | 0.10 | 22:00 |
| Halifax House Price Index Year-over-Year | 0.50 | - | 22:00 |
| Wednesday (2026-07-08) | |||
| RICS House Price Balance | -34 | -32 | 15:01 |
- BoE Governor Bailey signals rate cuts off the table with Bank Rate steady at 3.73%, CPI at 3.4% and unemployment at 4.9%.
- S&P Global Construction PMI due at 40.1 consensus, pointing to contraction and adding downside risks to growth.
- UK 10-year gilt yields rise 2.51% to 4.94% as leverage rule review lifts bond demand prospects.
Yesterday's Recap
UK markets showed modest gains with FTSE 100 rising 0.25% to 10,679 and FTSE 250 adding 0.08% to 23,558. Sterling traded mixed, with GBP/USD flat at 1.33 while GBP/JPY gained 0.51% to 216.44. The 10-year gilt yield climbed sharply to 4.94%, reflecting reduced cut expectations after recent BoE comments.
Brent crude eased 0.18% to 71.67 amid stable supply signals. Gold advanced 0.96% to 4,152.30 as a safe-haven bid emerged. UK natural gas rose 1.06% to 3.23 on storage concerns.
No major data releases occurred, leaving market focus on BoE communications and gilt technicals.
The Day Ahead
The S&P Global Construction PMI at 00:30 carries medium impact with consensus at 40.1, likely confirming sector contraction. Halifax House Price Index month-over-month and year-over-year prints follow at 22:00, with consensus pointing to a modest 0.1% monthly rebound. Markets will parse any housing weakness for signals on consumer balance sheets.
The data cluster arrives ahead of RICS House Price Balance on Wednesday. Focus remains on whether soft construction readings alter BoE easing probabilities priced into short sterling.
Other Economic Notes
UK CPI at 3.4% and unemployment at 4.9% continue to anchor policy expectations around the 3.73% Bank Rate. Housing indicators remain central to consumption forecasts given high household leverage. Fiscal restraint signals from the Treasury reinforce the BoE’s restrictive stance.
Gilt market liquidity concerns have prompted discussion of leverage rule adjustments that could support domestic bond demand without altering the rate path.
Global Macro News
US trade tensions with Canada and Mexico over USMCA renewal add external uncertainty for UK exporters. Saudi statements on Syria support highlight ongoing geopolitical risks that support gold prices. <i>↓ p.2</i>
