UK Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Halifax Prices Rise as Construction PMI Misses
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| FTSE 100 | 10,651.80 | -0.25% |
| FTSE 250 | 23,386.33 | -0.50% |
| GBP/USD | 1.34 | +0.20% |
| GBP/EUR | 1.17 | +0.18% |
| GBP/JPY | 216.60 | +0.48% |
| Brent Crude | 73.56 | +2.18% |
| Gold | 4,166.00 | +0.26% |
| UK Nat Gas | 3.28 | +1.17% |
| Bitcoin | 63,517.94 | -0.75% |
| UK 2Y Gilt | - | - |
| UK 10Y Gilt | 4.94% | +2.51% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P Global Construction PMI | 38.20 | 40 | 38.40 |
| Halifax House Price Index Month-over-Month | -0.10 | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| Halifax House Price Index Year-over-Year | 0.50 | - | 0.60 |
UK 10Y Gilt Yield | Type: macro_line | Percent: 4.942 (2026-05-01) | Range: 0.644–4.942 | Trend(6pt): 0.644,4.11,3.862,4.506,4.821,4.942
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday (2026-07-08) | |||
| RICS House Price Balance | -34 | -32 | 15:01 |
- Halifax house prices rose 0.2% m/m and 0.6% y/y in June, beating expectations.
- S&P Global Construction PMI edged to 38.4, remaining deep in contraction territory.
- FTSE 100 fell 0.25% while 10-year gilt yields climbed 2.51% to 4.94%.
Yesterday's Recap
UK construction activity contracted further in June as the S&P Global PMI printed 38.4 against a 40.0 consensus. Halifax reported a 0.2% monthly rise in house prices, lifting the annual rate to 0.6%. Sterling strengthened modestly with GBP/USD up 0.20% to 1.34.
The FTSE 100 declined 0.25% to 10,651.80 while the FTSE 250 dropped 0.50%. Brent crude gained 2.18% to $73.56. The 10-year gilt yield increased 2.51% to 4.94%.
No MPC members spoke publicly.
The Day Ahead
Markets await the RICS House Price Balance release at 15:01 tomorrow. The survey is expected to improve to -32 from -34. No UK data prints are scheduled for today.
Attention will turn to any follow-up comments from Bank of England officials on the upcoming Financial Stability Report. Sterling crosses may react to any surprise in the housing survey.
Other Economic Notes
UK banks are positioning for potential easing of leverage rules ahead of the Bank of England stability report. The central bank has flagged rising risks from artificial intelligence and hedge-fund leverage. Chancellor Reeves continues to stress adherence to fiscal rules without extra borrowing.
Housing data remain the clearest near-term signal of domestic demand resilience.
Global Macro News
An oil tanker fire in the Strait of Hormuz region lifted Brent and supported sterling. US tariff threats are redirecting some capital flows but also creating uncertainty for UK exporters. All three 2026 World Cup host nations exited early, limiting related tourism gains.
EU flash HICP data due tomorrow could influence sterling volatility. Global equity sentiment stayed cautious amid mixed corporate earnings.
BoE Watch
The Bank of England holds the policy rate at 3.73% with CPI at 2.80% y/y. Officials are weighing a leverage-ratio review that could increase gilt demand but raise systemic risks. <i>↓ p.2</i>
