UK Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Housing Data Buoy Sterling as Gilts Weaken
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| FTSE 100 | 10,469.14 | -1.84% |
| FTSE 250 | 23,118.04 | +0.44% |
| GBP/USD | 1.34 | +0.53% |
| GBP/EUR | 1.17 | +0.22% |
| GBP/JPY | 217.82 | +0.52% |
| Brent Crude | 77.28 | -0.95% |
| Gold | 4,117.10 | +1.13% |
| UK Nat Gas | 3.23 | +0.47% |
| Bitcoin | 63,008.48 | +1.21% |
| UK 2Y Gilt | - | - |
| UK 10Y Gilt | 4.94% | +2.51% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P Global Construction PMI | 38.20 | 40 | 38.40 |
| Halifax House Price Index Month-over-Month | -0.20 | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| Halifax House Price Index Year-over-Year | 0.50 | - | 0.60 |
| Lloyds House Price Index Month-over-Month | -0.20 | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| Lloyds House Price Index Year-over-Year | 0.50 | - | 0.60 |
| RICS House Price Balance | -34 | -30 | -33 |
UK 10Y Gilt Yield | Type: macro_line | Yield %: 4.942 (2026-05-01) | Range: 0.644–4.942 | Trend(6pt): 0.644,4.11,3.862,4.506,4.821,4.942
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
- UK housing indicators showed modest improvement in July with Halifax and Lloyds indices rising 0.2% m/m, though RICS balance remained deeply negative at -33.
- FTSE 100 fell 1.84% to 10,469.14 while 10-year gilt yields climbed 2.51% to 4.94%; sterling gained across majors with GBP/USD up 0.53% at 1.34.
- BoE Bank Rate stands at 3.73% and CPI at 2.80% y/y; markets focus on faster-than-expected disinflation amid easing signals.
Yesterday's Recap
UK construction PMI printed 38.4 against a 40 consensus, extending the sector contraction. Halifax house prices rose 0.2% m/m and 0.6% y/y, matching Lloyds readings and beating the prior -0.2% m/m decline. RICS house price balance improved to -33 from -34 but missed the -30 consensus.
Equity markets diverged with the FTSE 100 dropping 1.84% while the FTSE 250 advanced 0.44%. Sterling strengthened, led by a 0.53% gain in GBP/USD to 1.34, as 10-year gilt yields rose sharply to 4.94%. Brent crude fell 0.95% to $77.28 while gold climbed 1.13% to $4,117.10.
The Day Ahead
No major UK data releases are scheduled for 9 July. Attention turns to global risk sentiment and any follow-through from yesterday’s housing prints. Sterling crosses and gilt curves will likely respond to US-Iran developments and oil-price volatility.
Traders will monitor BoE communications for further signals on the timing of easing. Thin domestic calendar leaves markets exposed to external shocks.
Other Economic Notes
UK inflation is projected to decline faster than previously anticipated as the impact of Iran-related supply disruptions proves milder than feared. Persistent weakness in construction and housing indicators points to subdued domestic demand. Fiscal signals from the Chancellor remain focused on targeted support for housing and green investment without immediate gilt-market pressure.
Broader wage and employment trends continue to anchor BoE policy deliberations.
Global Macro News
Renewed US-Iran hostilities over the Strait of Hormuz have injected volatility into oil markets, with Brent settling lower despite supply concerns. Alphabet’s data-centre investment drove a sharp rise in Indian FDI, illustrating shifting global capital flows that could influence sterling sentiment. US retailers including Walmart announced selective price cuts, reflecting softer consumer-price pressures that may support earlier global easing.
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