UK Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
UK GDP Rebounds as Trade Deficit Narrows
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| FTSE 100 | 10,499.38 | -0.16% |
| FTSE 250 | 23,715.80 | +1.08% |
| GBP/USD | 1.35 | -0.56% |
| GBP/EUR | 1.18 | -0.33% |
| GBP/JPY | 218.66 | -0.33% |
| Brent Crude | 84.18 | -0.06% |
| Gold | 3,992.00 | +0.16% |
| UK Nat Gas | 2.86 | +0.10% |
| Bitcoin | 62,774.05 | -3.00% |
| UK 2Y Gilt | - | - |
| UK 10Y Gilt | 4.80% | -2.95% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| BoE Pill Speech | - | - | - |
| BRC Retail Sales Monitor Year-over-Year | 3.40 | 2.90 | 1.70 |
| BoE Gov Bailey Speech | - | - | - |
| GDP Month-over-Month | -0.10 | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| GDP 3-Month Avg | 0.80 | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| Goods Trade Balance | -24,580m | -23,600m | -18,660m |
| Goods Trade Balance Non-EU | -12,210m | - | -7,140m |
| Industrial Production Month-over-Month | 0.20 | -0.10 | -0.50 |
| Manufacturing Production Month-over-Month | 0.50 | -0.20 | 0.10 |
UK House Price Index | Type: macro_line | Index: -2.163 (2026-01-01) | Range: -7.308–2.258 | Trend(6pt): 2.258,-1.561,-6.356,-0.04994,-1.072,-2.163
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
- GDP rose 0.1% MoM in May while the 3-month average hit 0.7%, confirming modest recovery.
- Goods trade deficit narrowed sharply to £18.66bn, beating consensus by a wide margin.
- BRC retail sales growth slowed to 1.7% YoY, underscoring persistent consumer weakness.
Yesterday's Recap
UK data released on 15 July showed GDP expanding 0.1% month-on-month in May, matching consensus and reversing the prior contraction. The three-month average growth printed 0.7%, slightly above expectations. The goods trade deficit improved markedly to £18.66bn, far better than the £23.6bn forecast, while the non-EU balance also narrowed.
Industrial production fell 0.5% month-on-month against a consensus decline of 0.1%, though manufacturing output edged up 0.1%. BRC retail sales growth cooled to 1.7% year-on-year, missing forecasts. Market reaction was muted: the FTSE 100 slipped 0.16% to 10,499.38 while the FTSE 250 gained 1.08%.
Sterling weakened, with GBP/USD falling 0.56% to 1.35, and the 10-year gilt yield declined 2.95% to 4.80%. BoE Governor Bailey and Deputy Governor Pill both spoke earlier in the week, stressing caution on policy easing.
The Day Ahead
No major UK data releases are scheduled for 17 or 18 July, leaving markets to digest recent GDP and trade figures. Attention will remain on BoE communications and any follow-up remarks from MPC members. Global developments, including US inflation trends and developments in the Middle East, may influence sterling and gilt pricing.
Traders will monitor OPEC+ signals and Chinese demand data for their impact on Brent crude, which closed at $84.18. The absence of fresh domestic prints should keep volatility contained unless geopolitical headlines intensify.
Other Economic Notes
The UK economy continues to expand at a subdued pace, with May GDP growth insufficient to offset earlier weakness. Persistent energy-price pressures and the ongoing effects of the Iran conflict are weighing on activity. The IMF lowered its 2026 UK growth forecast to 1%, citing these headwinds.
Labour-market data remain stable, with unemployment at 4.90%, yet wage pressures show limited signs of reacceleration. Gilt markets continue to price a gradual BoE easing path despite the central bank’s recent hawkish tone.
