UK Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
UK Construction PMI Surges, Gilts Rally
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| FTSE 100 | 10,904.50 | +0.15% |
| FTSE 250 | 24,695.40 | +0.25% |
| GBP/USD | 1.35 | -0.13% |
| GBP/EUR | 1.17 | +0.16% |
| GBP/JPY | 213.01 | +0.34% |
| Brent Crude | 83.58 | +1.32% |
| Gold | 4,337.60 | +2.25% |
| UK Nat Gas | 2.65 | +0.30% |
| Bitcoin | 64,277.67 | -0.50% |
| UK 2Y Gilt | - | - |
| UK 10Y Gilt | 4.80% | -2.95% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P Global Construction PMI Index | 38.40 | 40 | 44.70 |
| Lloyds House Price Index Month-over-Month | 0.20 | 0.10 | 0 |
| Lloyds House Price Index Year-over-Year | 0.60 | 0.40 | 0.10 |
FTSE 100 Index (3mo) | Type: market_hloc | Price: 1.087e+04 (2026-08-06) | Range: 1.02e+04–1.091e+04 | Trend(6pt): 1.044e+04,1.041e+04,1.044e+04,1.053e+04,1.089e+04,1.087e+04
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
- Construction PMI surges to 44.7, beating consensus
- Lloyds house prices flat month-over-month
- FTSE 100 rises 0.15% as 10-year gilt yields fall
Yesterday's Recap
UK construction activity rebounded sharply in July as the S&P Global PMI jumped to 44.7 from 38.4, exceeding the 40 consensus and signalling reduced contraction. Lloyds house price indices showed no monthly change and only 0.1% annual growth, both below expectations and pointing to subdued housing momentum. The FTSE 100 advanced 0.15% to 10,904.50 while the FTSE 250 gained 0.25%, supported by firmer energy and materials shares.
The 10-year gilt yield declined 2.95% to 4.80%, driving a broad rally in fixed income. Sterling posted mixed moves, with GBP/USD falling 0.13% to 1.35 and GBP/JPY rising 0.34% to 213.01. Brent crude climbed 1.32% to 83.58 on supply concerns, while gold surged 2.25% to 4,337.60.
UK natural gas edged 0.30% higher to 2.65 amid storage worries.
The Day Ahead
The UK calendar is empty today, leaving markets to digest yesterday’s PMI surprise and monitor any follow-up commentary from officials. Attention will turn to potential updates on housing indicators and retail spending trends later in the week. Sterling and gilt curves are expected to remain sensitive to any shifts in global risk sentiment.
Energy prices will continue to influence inflation expectations given the recent Brent strength. No MPC members are scheduled to speak, keeping policy signals limited to existing guidance.
Other Economic Notes
UK CPI inflation stands at 2.60% year-over-year while unemployment holds at 4.90%, leaving the Bank of England with a narrow path between price stability and labour-market softening. The stronger construction PMI suggests some resilience in activity, yet flat house prices indicate limited support from the household sector. Fiscal policy remains focused on meeting existing rules without additional borrowing, constraining any near-term stimulus.
Broader data releases next week will test whether the recent PMI improvement extends to services and manufacturing.
Global Macro News
Brent crude advanced on OPEC+ discipline and firmer Chinese import figures, supporting UK energy-related equities. Iran and Oman agreed shipping coordinates through the Strait of Hormuz, though reopening remains conditional on US policy shifts and continues to cloud supply risks. <i>↓ p.2</i>
