UK Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Gilts Rally as Retail Sales Loom
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| FTSE 100 | 10,901.10 | +0.31% |
| FTSE 250 | 24,854.90 | +0.65% |
| GBP/USD | 1.35 | +0.30% |
| GBP/EUR | 1.17 | -0.02% |
| GBP/JPY | 213.68 | +0.26% |
| Brent Crude | 83.55 | +0.00% |
| Gold | 4,407.90 | +1.55% |
| UK Nat Gas | 2.74 | +2.78% |
| Bitcoin | 65,084.99 | +0.28% |
| UK 2Y Gilt | - | - |
| UK 10Y Gilt | 4.80% | -2.95% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
FTSE 100 3M Performance | Type: market_hloc | FTSE 100 Index: 1.09e+04 (2026-08-07) | Range: 1.02e+04–1.091e+04 | Trend(6pt): 1.028e+04,1.034e+04,1.043e+04,1.052e+04,1.087e+04,1.09e+04
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| BRC Retail Sales Monitor Year-over-Year | 1.70 | 1.50 | 15:01 |
| Wednesday (2026-08-12) | |||
| RICS House Price Balance | -33 | - | 15:01 |
| Thursday (2026-08-13) | |||
| GDP Growth Quarter-over-Quarter Preliminary | 0.60 | 0.40 | 22:00 |
| GDP Growth Year-over-Year Preliminary | 0.90 | - | 22:00 |
| GDP Month-over-Month | 0.10 | -0.10 | 22:00 |
| Business Investment Quarter-over-Quarter Preliminary | 0.90 | - | 22:00 |
| GDP 3-Month Avg Level | 0.70 | - | 22:00 |
| Goods Trade Balance | -18,660m | -20,400m | 22:00 |
- FTSE 100 rises 0.31% to 10,901.10 while 10Y gilt yields fall 2.95% to 4.80% on light volume.
- BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY due today with consensus at 1.5% after July print of 1.7%.
- BoE holds Bank Rate at 3.73% amid CPI at 2.60% YoY and unemployment at 4.90%.
Yesterday's Recap
UK equity markets closed higher with the FTSE 100 advancing 0.31% to 10,901.10 and the FTSE 250 gaining 0.65% to 24,854.90. Sterling strengthened modestly against the dollar, with GBP/USD rising 0.30% to 1.35, while GBP/EUR slipped 0.02% to 1.17. Gilt yields declined sharply, sending the 10Y benchmark to 4.80% for a 2.95% daily drop that reflected thin trading and limited domestic data.
Brent crude held steady at 83.55 with no fresh supply signals, while UK natural gas climbed 2.78% to 2.74 amid seasonal storage concerns. Gold advanced 1.55% to 4,407.90, providing a safe-haven bid that spilled into longer-duration gilts. No high-impact UK releases occurred on 9 August, leaving price action driven by positioning ahead of this week’s retail sales and GDP prints.
Broader fixed-income flows favoured duration as participants reduced exposure to shorter-dated paper ahead of the coming data slate.
The Day Ahead
Attention centres on the BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY release at 15:01 BST, where consensus points to a 1.5% reading after the prior 1.7%. Markets will parse the figure for signs of consumer resilience ahead of the 12 August GDP release. Preliminary Q2 GDP is expected to slow to 0.4% quarter-over-quarter from 0.6%, with month-on-month output forecast to contract 0.1%.
Industrial production and manufacturing output prints will accompany the national accounts, offering early clues on Q3 momentum. The RICS House Price Balance on 12 August will round out the week’s housing data. Traders will also monitor any follow-up comments from MPC members after last month’s hold.
Forward curves continue to embed modest probability of a September move lower provided incoming consumption and output figures remain soft.
Other Economic Notes
UK inflation remains anchored at 2.60% YoY while unemployment sits at 4.90%, giving the MPC room to keep policy on hold. Business investment and the goods trade balance will feature in Wednesday’s data dump, highlighting persistent external deficits. Gilt market participants continue to price modest further easing later this year, with the 2Y-10Y curve flattening on the back of lower long-end yields.
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