UK Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Retail Sales Miss Weighs on Growth Outlook
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| FTSE 100 | 10,901.10 | +0.31% |
| FTSE 250 | 24,744.50 | -0.44% |
| GBP/USD | 1.35 | +0.17% |
| GBP/EUR | 1.17 | +0.26% |
| GBP/JPY | 213.00 | -0.07% |
| Brent Crude | 87.95 | +0.26% |
| Gold | 4,434.30 | +1.66% |
| UK Nat Gas | 2.79 | -0.29% |
| Bitcoin | 63,968.23 | -1.35% |
| UK 2Y Gilt | - | - |
| UK 10Y Gilt | 4.80% | -2.95% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| BRC Retail Sales Monitor Year-over-Year | 1.70 | 1.50 | 1 |
FTSE 100 Index | Type: market_hloc | Price: 1.086e+04 (2026-08-10) | Range: 1.02e+04–1.091e+04 | Trend(5pt): 1.027e+04,1.033e+04,1.053e+04,1.06e+04,1.086e+04
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday (2026-08-12) | |||
| RICS House Price Balance | -33 | - | 15:01 |
| Thursday (2026-08-13) | |||
| GDP Growth Quarter-over-Quarter Preliminary | 0.60 | 0.40 | 22:00 |
| GDP Growth Year-over-Year Preliminary | 0.90 | 1.10 | 22:00 |
| GDP Month-over-Month | 0.10 | -0.10 | 22:00 |
| Business Investment Quarter-over-Quarter Preliminary | 0.90 | - | 22:00 |
| GDP 3-Month Avg Level | 0.70 | 0.40 | 22:00 |
| Goods Trade Balance | -18,660m | -20,500m | 22:00 |
| Goods Trade Balance Non-Eu | -7,140m | - | 22:00 |
- BRC retail sales YoY dropped to 1.0% against 1.5% consensus, signalling weaker consumer demand.
- FTSE 100 gained 0.31% to 10,901.10 while 10Y gilt yields fell to 4.80%.
- Markets price in softer growth ahead of tomorrow’s preliminary GDP release.
Yesterday's Recap
BRC Retail Sales Monitor Year-over-Year printed at 1.0% for July, missing the 1.5% consensus and falling from the prior 1.7%. The shortfall points to subdued household spending amid persistent cost-of-living pressures. FTSE 100 rose 0.31% to 10,901.10 while FTSE 250 declined 0.44%.
GBP/USD advanced 0.17% to 1.35 and GBP/EUR climbed 0.26% to 1.17. UK 10Y gilt yields dropped to 4.80%, down 2.95% on the day. Gold jumped 1.66% to 4,434.30 as investors sought safe-haven assets.
Brent crude edged 0.26% higher to 87.95. The data underscore cooling domestic demand that could weigh on the growth trajectory into the second half of the year.
The Day Ahead
Attention turns to tomorrow’s raft of high-impact releases including preliminary GDP figures. Quarter-over-quarter growth is expected at 0.4% versus the prior 0.6%, while year-over-year growth is forecast at 1.1%. Month-over-month GDP is projected to contract 0.1%.
Industrial production, manufacturing output, goods trade balance and business investment data will also be published. The RICS House Price Balance for August is due later today and may offer early signals on housing momentum. Sterling and gilt curves will react sharply to any material deviation from consensus.
Traders will parse the full suite for clues on whether the recent retail weakness is feeding through to broader activity measures.
Other Economic Notes
UK CPI remains at 2.60% year-over-year, keeping real income growth modest. Unemployment stands at 4.90%, indicating a still-tight labour market despite cooling demand indicators. Gilt yields at 4.80% reflect markets’ view that the Bank of England will maintain a cautious easing path.
Retail weakness and upcoming GDP prints together suggest downside risks to the growth outlook through year-end. Sterling crosses have priced in limited near-term policy divergence versus the ECB and Fed. The combination of contained inflation and softening activity data leaves little scope for aggressive policy shifts in the near term.
