UK Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Retail Sales Miss as GDP Data Looms
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| FTSE 100 | 10,849.08 | -0.12% |
| FTSE 250 | 24,799.80 | +0.22% |
| GBP/USD | 1.35 | -0.03% |
| GBP/EUR | 1.17 | +0.02% |
| GBP/JPY | 215.29 | +0.13% |
| Brent Crude | 89.53 | +0.70% |
| Gold | 4,445.80 | +1.43% |
| UK Nat Gas | 2.78 | +0.36% |
| Bitcoin | 63,732.99 | -0.28% |
| UK 2Y Gilt | - | - |
| UK 10Y Gilt | 4.80% | -2.95% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| BRC Retail Sales Monitor Year-over-Year | 1.70 | 1.50 | 1 |
GBP/USD Exchange Rate | Type: market_hloc | Rate: 1.351 (2026-08-12) | Range: 1.317–1.36 | Trend(6pt): 1.36,1.345,1.317,1.348,1.349,1.351
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| RICS House Price Balance | -33 | - | 15:01 |
| Thursday (2026-08-13) | |||
| GDP Growth Quarter-over-Quarter Preliminary | 0.60 | 0.40 | 22:00 |
| GDP Growth Year-over-Year Preliminary | 0.90 | 1.10 | 22:00 |
| GDP Month-over-Month | 0.10 | -0.10 | 22:00 |
| Business Investment Quarter-over-Quarter Preliminary | 0.90 | - | 22:00 |
| GDP 3-Month Avg Level | 0.70 | 0.40 | 22:00 |
| Goods Trade Balance | -18,660m | -20,500m | 22:00 |
| Goods Trade Balance Non-Eu | -7,140m | - | 22:00 |
| Industrial Production Month-over-Month | -0.50 | 0.10 | 22:00 |
- BRC Retail Sales YoY fell to 1.0% against 1.5% consensus, signalling softer consumer demand.
- FTSE 100 declined 0.12% to 10,849.08 while 10-year gilt yields dropped 2.95% to 4.80%.
- Markets await preliminary GDP prints tonight with consensus pointing to 0.4% quarter-over-quarter growth.
Yesterday's Recap
UK retail sales data disappointed as the BRC Retail Sales Monitor Year-over-Year printed 1.0%, missing the 1.5% consensus and slowing from the prior 1.7%. The shortfall reflected weaker high-street and online spending amid elevated borrowing costs. Equity markets closed modestly lower with the FTSE 100 falling 0.12% to 10,849.08, while the FTSE 250 gained 0.22% to 24,799.80.
Sterling eased across the board as GBP/USD slipped 0.03% to 1.35 and GBP/EUR rose just 0.02% to 1.17. Gilt yields compressed, with the 10-year benchmark declining 2.95% to 4.80%. Brent crude advanced 0.70% to 89.53 amid supply concerns, and gold climbed 1.43% to 4,445.80 as investors sought safety.
UK natural gas rose 0.36% to 2.78 while Bitcoin slipped 0.28% to 63,732.99. No Bank of England speakers appeared in the session.
The Day Ahead
Attention turns to the RICS House Price Balance at 15:01, expected to remain negative and highlight ongoing housing-market weakness. High-impact preliminary GDP figures are due at 22:00, with quarter-over-quarter growth forecast at 0.4% versus the prior 0.6% and year-over-year growth seen at 1.1%. Month-over-month GDP is projected to contract 0.1%, while industrial production is tipped to rise 0.1% after last month’s 0.5% drop.
Business investment, goods trade balance and manufacturing production data will also be released, offering further insight into domestic demand and external balances. Markets will parse any beat or miss for clues on Bank of England timing.
Other Economic Notes
UK unemployment stands at 4.90%, keeping labour-market slack contained yet insufficient to offset cooling demand signals. CPI inflation at 2.60% remains above the 2% target, limiting the scope for aggressive easing despite recent retail weakness. Fiscal policy remains anchored to rules, with Chancellor Reeves reiterating commitment to debt reduction and thereby capping near-term gilt supply risks.
Housing indicators continue to reflect higher mortgage rates, weighing on consumer confidence and broader activity. These factors together suggest a gradual rather than rapid recovery path for UK growth.
