UK Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
UK GDP Beats Forecasts as Retail Sales Weaken
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| FTSE 100 | 10,825.49 | -0.17% |
| FTSE 250 | 24,814.90 | +0.06% |
| GBP/USD | 1.35 | -0.14% |
| GBP/EUR | 1.17 | +0.02% |
| GBP/JPY | 215.02 | -0.06% |
| Brent Crude | 88.91 | -0.08% |
| Gold | 4,433.70 | +0.56% |
| UK Nat Gas | 2.79 | -0.64% |
| Bitcoin | 63,771.71 | +0.35% |
| UK 2Y Gilt | - | - |
| UK 10Y Gilt | 4.80% | -2.95% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| BRC Retail Sales Monitor Year-over-Year | 1.70 | 1.50 | 1 |
| RICS House Price Balance | -33 | -31 | -30 |
| GDP Growth Quarter-over-Quarter Preliminary | 0.60 | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| GDP Growth Year-over-Year Preliminary | 0.90 | 1.10 | 1.20 |
| GDP Month-over-Month | 0.10 | 0 | 0.30 |
| Business Investment Quarter-over-Quarter Preliminary | 0.90 | - | 1.70 |
| GDP 3-Month Avg Level | 0.70 | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| Goods Trade Balance | -18,660m | -20,500m | -23,010m |
| Goods Trade Balance Non-Eu | -7,140m | - | -10,450m |
| Industrial Production Month-over-Month | -0.50 | 0.10 | -0.20 |
UK 10Y Gilt Yield | Type: macro_line | %: 4.796 (2026-06-01) | Range: 0.8023–4.942 | Trend(6pt): 0.8023,3.417,3.932,4.645,4.942,4.796
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
- UK GDP grew 0.3% m/m in July, beating consensus, while annual growth reached 1.2%.
- Retail sales momentum faded with BRC YoY at 1%, below expectations, and RICS house prices improved to -30.
- FTSE 100 slipped 0.17% and 10Y gilt yields fell 2.95% as markets priced steadier BoE policy.
Yesterday's Recap
UK data releases showed mixed signals on 12 August. GDP rose 0.3% m/m against a flat consensus while the quarterly preliminary print matched expectations at 0.4%. Annual growth edged higher to 1.2%, exceeding forecasts, and business investment accelerated to 1.7% q/q.
Industrial production contracted 0.2% m/m and manufacturing output fell 0.5%, both missing projections. The goods trade deficit widened to £23.01bn. Markets reacted with the FTSE 100 declining 0.17% to 10,825.49 while the FTSE 250 gained 0.06%.
Sterling eased 0.14% against the dollar to 1.35 and 10Y gilt yields dropped sharply to 4.80%. The unemployment rate at 4.90% and CPI at 2.60% y/y continue to frame the steady 3.73% Bank Rate backdrop, limiting immediate policy reaction despite the stronger monthly output print.
The Day Ahead
No UK data releases are scheduled for 13 August, leaving markets to digest yesterday’s GDP figures. Attention will shift to global developments that could influence sterling crosses and gilt curves. Traders will monitor any follow-through from the July Bank Rate decision at 3.73% and assess implications for near-term policy stability.
Liquidity in UK assets may remain subdued ahead of the weekend. Focus stays on how the stronger monthly GDP print interacts with softer retail sales to shape rate expectations, with the 10Y gilt yield at 4.97% reflecting contained inflation pressures.
Other Economic Notes
Broader UK themes centre on resilient output despite consumer weakness. The 4.90% unemployment rate continues to anchor labour-market views while CPI at 2.60% y/y supports the current 3.73% Bank Rate. Gilt markets priced limited near-term easing after the GDP release, with the 10Y yield at 4.97% reflecting steady inflation expectations.
Regional growth disparities remain a concern for policymakers balancing fiscal rules with monetary settings. The committee voted to hold rates, underscoring data dependence ahead of further releases.
