UK Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
UK GDP Beats Forecasts, Retail Sales Weaken
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| FTSE 100 | 10,757.90 | -0.70% |
| FTSE 250 | 24,837.70 | +0.09% |
| GBP/USD | 1.35 | +0.03% |
| GBP/EUR | 1.17 | -0.11% |
| GBP/JPY | 214.93 | -0.06% |
| Brent Crude | 87.68 | -1.46% |
| Gold | 4,387.60 | +0.55% |
| UK Nat Gas | 2.76 | +1.06% |
| Bitcoin | 63,258.85 | -0.23% |
| UK 2Y Gilt | - | - |
| UK 10Y Gilt | 4.80% | -2.95% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| BRC Retail Sales Monitor Year-over-Year | 1.70 | 1.50 | 1 |
| RICS House Price Balance | -33 | -31 | -30 |
| GDP Growth Quarter-over-Quarter Preliminary | 0.60 | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| GDP Growth Year-over-Year Preliminary | 0.90 | 1.10 | 1.20 |
| GDP Month-over-Month | 0 | 0 | 0.30 |
| Business Investment Quarter-over-Quarter Preliminary | 0.90 | - | 1.70 |
| GDP 3-Month Avg Level | 0.60 | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| Goods Trade Balance | -21,080m | -20,500m | -23,010m |
| Goods Trade Balance Non-Eu | -9,580m | - | -10,450m |
| Industrial Production Month-over-Month | -0.70 | 0.10 | -0.20 |
FTSE 100 Index (3mo) | Type: market_hloc | FTSE 100: 1.077e+04 (2026-08-13) | Range: 1.02e+04–1.091e+04 | Trend(6pt): 1.033e+04,1.037e+04,1.048e+04,1.059e+04,1.083e+04,1.077e+04
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
- Preliminary GDP QoQ held at 0.4% while YoY rose to 1.2%, beating consensus.
- BRC Retail Sales YoY fell to 1.0% versus 1.5% expected, signalling consumer weakness.
- FTSE 100 declined 0.70% as 10Y Gilt yields dropped to 4.95%.
Yesterday's Recap
UK data showed mixed signals with GDP growth quarter-over-quarter printing exactly at the 0.4% consensus while year-over-year advanced to 1.2%. Month-over-month GDP rose 0.3% and business investment surged 1.7%. BRC Retail Sales Monitor year-over-year missed at 1.0% against 1.5% expected, and RICS House Price Balance improved modestly to -30.
Industrial production contracted 0.2% month-over-month and manufacturing output fell 0.5%. Markets reacted with the FTSE 100 dropping 0.70% to 10,757.90 while the FTSE 250 edged up 0.09%. Sterling was little changed against the dollar at 1.35 but eased versus the euro; the 10Y Gilt yield declined to 4.95%.
Goods trade balance widened to -£23.01bn and non-EU goods balance reached -£10.45bn. The combination of steady headline growth and softer consumer metrics left investors focused on the durability of the expansion.
The Day Ahead
No high-impact UK releases are scheduled for today, leaving markets to digest yesterday’s GDP and retail figures. Attention will turn to any follow-up commentary from MPC members on the growth path. Traders will monitor gilt auctions and sterling flows for signs of positioning ahead of next week’s potential updates.
Lower-than-expected retail sales may keep short-end yields supported and reinforce expectations for measured Bank of England easing. Global equity moves and Brent crude at 87.68 could influence risk sentiment toward UK assets. With no domestic data due, focus shifts to external drivers including European PMI prints and US inflation releases that may shape sterling volatility.
Other Economic Notes
The combination of steady GDP and softer retail sales points to an economy expanding at a modest pace without strong consumer momentum. Business investment strength offers a partial offset, suggesting firms remain willing to spend despite higher borrowing costs. Housing indicators from RICS show tentative stabilisation that could support construction activity later in the year.
Overall, the data reinforce a picture of gradual cooling consistent with the current restrictive policy stance. Trade figures highlight persistent goods deficits that may weigh on the current-account outlook even as services activity holds up. <i>↓ p.2</i>
