UK Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
UK Jobs Data Looms as Earnings Growth Slows
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| FTSE 100 | 10,750.10 | -0.21% |
| FTSE 250 | 24,867.40 | +0.12% |
| GBP/USD | 1.36 | +0.47% |
| GBP/EUR | 1.17 | +0.01% |
| GBP/JPY | 215.07 | +0.01% |
| Brent Crude | 88.40 | -0.14% |
| Gold | 4,451.30 | +1.62% |
| UK Nat Gas | 2.66 | -2.74% |
| Bitcoin | 63,518.42 | +0.78% |
| UK 2Y Gilt | - | - |
| UK 10Y Gilt | 4.80% | -2.95% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
GBP/USD Exchange Rate | Type: market_hloc | Rate: 1.355 (2026-08-17) | Range: 1.317–1.355 | Trend(6pt): 1.331,1.333,1.325,1.338,1.349,1.355
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tuesday (2026-08-18) | |||
| Unemployment Rate | 4.90 | 4.80 | 22:00 |
| Average Earnings Incl. Bonus (3Mo/Yr) | 4.30 | 4 | 22:00 |
| Employment Change | 147,000 | - | 22:00 |
| Wednesday (2026-08-19) | |||
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 2.60 | 2.90 | 22:00 |
| Core Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 2.60 | 2.50 | 22:00 |
| Inflation Rate Month-over-Month | 0.10 | - | 22:00 |
| Thursday (2026-08-20) | |||
| CBI Industrial Trends Orders Level | -45 | -40 | 02:00 |
- Unemployment rate eyed at 4.8% versus prior 4.9%
- Average earnings growth forecast to ease to 4.0% y/y
- Markets await inflation print after recent GDP beat
Yesterday's Recap
UK markets showed mixed moves on 16 August with no major data releases. The FTSE 100 declined 0.21% to close at 10,750.10 while the FTSE 250 advanced 0.12% to 24,867.40. Sterling strengthened, with GBP/USD rising 0.47% to 1.36 and GBP/EUR edging 0.01% higher to 1.17.
The UK 10Y Gilt yield fell 2.95% to 4.80%, reflecting softer rate expectations. Brent crude slipped 0.14% to 88.40 while gold surged 1.62% to 4,451.30 amid safe-haven demand. UK natural gas dropped 2.74% to 2.66 on mild weather forecasts.
Recent ONS figures showed the economy expanding 0.3% in June and 0.4% in Q2, supporting resilience narratives ahead of labour data.
The Day Ahead
Focus turns to the 22:00 UK labour release covering July unemployment, employment change and average earnings. Consensus points to unemployment falling to 4.8% from 4.9% while earnings growth is seen slowing to 4.0% from 4.3%. Tomorrow brings the August CPI print with headline inflation expected at 2.9% y/y against 2.6% prior and core at 2.5%.
Thursday features CBI industrial trends and GfK consumer confidence while Friday delivers retail sales and flash PMIs. These releases will shape expectations for the BoE's next policy steps given the 3.73% Bank Rate.
Other Economic Notes
UK growth momentum remains supported by services despite moderating quarterly readings. Sticky services inflation near 4.9% continues to limit the pace of disinflation even as headline CPI sits at 2.60%. Fiscal rules reiterated by the Chancellor have helped stabilise gilt markets without immediate tax increases.
Domestic investment signals improved with major manufacturing expansions announced in pharmaceuticals. Broader themes include persistent housing market softness and the impact of AI-related cost pressures on UK supply chains.
Global Macro News
US CPI softening and resilient growth data have tempered global rate-cut expectations, supporting sterling crosses. Fitch's AA+ rating affirmation for the US highlighted economic resilience amid fiscal concerns that could influence UK gilt spreads. Renewed US trade pressure on the EU over Chinese transshipment risks raises potential headwinds for UK exporters.
<i>↓ p.2</i>
