UK Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
UK House Prices Weaken Ahead of Retail Sales
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| FTSE 100 | 10,831.10 | -0.00% |
| FTSE 250 | 24,584.70 | +0.36% |
| GBP/USD | 1.35 | -0.11% |
| GBP/EUR | 1.16 | +0.02% |
| GBP/JPY | 210.59 | -1.72% |
| Brent Crude | 96.28 | +0.00% |
| Gold | 4,476.60 | +1.06% |
| UK Nat Gas | 2.97 | +0.00% |
| Bitcoin | 79,772.78 | -0.06% |
| UK 2Y Gilt | - | - |
| UK 10Y Gilt | 4.80% | -2.95% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lloyds House Price Index Month-over-Month | 0 | 0.20 | -0.20 |
| Lloyds House Price Index Year-over-Year | 0.10 | - | -0.40 |
FTSE 100 Index (3mo) | Type: market_hloc | Price: 1.083e+04 (2026-09-04) | Range: 1.023e+04–1.091e+04 | Trend(6pt): 1.036e+04,1.051e+04,1.052e+04,1.084e+04,1.083e+04,1.083e+04
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| BRC Retail Sales Monitor Year-over-Year | 1 | 1.20 | 15:01 |
| Wednesday (2026-09-09) | |||
| RICS House Price Balance | -30 | -28 | 15:01 |
| Friday (2026-09-11) | |||
| GDP Month-over-Month | 0.30 | 0 | 22:00 |
| GDP 3-Month Avg Level | 0.40 | - | 22:00 |
| Goods Trade Balance | -23,010m | -20,300m | 22:00 |
| Goods Trade Balance Non-Eu | -10,450m | - | 22:00 |
| Industrial Production Month-over-Month | -0.20 | 0.10 | 22:00 |
| Manufacturing Production Month-over-Month | -0.50 | 0.40 | 22:00 |
- Lloyds House Price Index MoM prints -0.2% versus 0.2% consensus
- FTSE 100 flat at 10,831.10 while 10Y Gilt yield falls to 4.80%
- BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY expected at 15:01 today
Yesterday's Recap
Lloyds House Price Index Month-over-Month printed -0.2% against a 0.2% consensus and prior reading of zero. The Year-over-Year measure fell to -0.4% from 0.1%. FTSE 100 closed unchanged at 10,831.10 while FTSE 250 advanced 0.36% to 24,584.70.
GBP/USD slipped 0.11% to 1.35 and GBP/JPY dropped 1.72% to 210.59. The 10-year Gilt yield declined 2.95% to 4.80%. Brent Crude held steady at 96.28 and gold rose 1.06% to 4,476.60.
No MPC members spoke alongside the housing data. UK CPI Year-over-Year stands at 2.90% while unemployment sits at 4.90%. The Bank Rate remains at 3.73%.
The Day Ahead
BRC Retail Sales Monitor Year-over-Year is scheduled for release at 15:01 UK time with consensus at 1.2% versus the prior 1.0%. Markets will scrutinise the print for early signals on consumer spending. Wednesday brings the RICS House Price Balance, expected to improve to -28 from -30.
Friday features high-impact GDP Month-over-Month, Industrial Production and Manufacturing Production releases. The Goods Trade Balance is also due that day. The single item today carries medium impact and will be watched for early signals on consumer spending ahead of next week’s higher-frequency GDP and industrial-production prints.
Other Economic Notes
UK CPI Year-over-Year stands at 2.90% while unemployment sits at 4.90%. The Bank Rate remains at 3.73%. Mortgage approvals have fallen to the lowest level since January 2024.
Firms’ price expectations have come in softer than forecast in the latest Bank of England survey. Output floor rules are viewed as curbing capital cyclicality in UK banking. The soft house-price data and absence of MPC commentary leave BoE rate expectations unchanged.
Markets continue to price steady policy in the near term, consistent with the flat FTSE 100, lower 10-year yield and modest sterling moves observed yesterday.
Global Macro News
US jobs data came in stronger than expected, reducing near-term rate cut odds. President Trump renewed threats to halt trade with deficit countries unless the Fed cuts rates. <i>↓ p.2</i>
