UK Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Weak Retail Sales, Oil Spike Hit UK Markets
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| FTSE 100 | 10,658.36 | -1.42% |
| FTSE 250 | 23,905.92 | -0.84% |
| GBP/USD | 1.35 | -0.12% |
| GBP/EUR | 1.16 | -0.13% |
| GBP/JPY | 208.36 | +0.24% |
| Brent Crude | 105.72 | +4.46% |
| Gold | 4,406.80 | -0.21% |
| UK Nat Gas | 2.78 | -1.38% |
| Bitcoin | 77,092.21 | -1.49% |
| UK 2Y Gilt | - | - |
| UK 10Y Gilt | 4.80% | -2.95% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lloyds House Price Index Month-over-Month | -0.10 | 0.20 | -0.20 |
| Lloyds House Price Index Year-over-Year | 0.10 | - | -0.40 |
| Chancellor John Healey Speech | - | - | - |
| BRC Retail Sales Monitor Year-over-Year | 1 | 1.20 | 0.50 |
| RICS House Price Balance | -30 | -31 | -28 |
Brent Crude Oil | Type: market_hloc | Price USD: 105.8 (2026-09-10) | Range: 71.57–105.8 | Trend(5pt): 93.1,71.99,84.09,91.62,105.8
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Friday (2026-09-11) | |||
| GDP Month-over-Month | 0.30 | 0 | 22:00 |
| GDP 3-Month Avg Level | 0.40 | 0.30 | 22:00 |
| Goods Trade Balance | -23,010m | -22,300m | 22:00 |
| Goods Trade Balance Non-Eu | -10,450m | - | 22:00 |
| Industrial Production Month-over-Month | -0.20 | -0.20 | 22:00 |
| Manufacturing Production Month-over-Month | -0.50 | 0.20 | 22:00 |
- UK house prices and retail sales missed expectations, signalling softer domestic demand.
- FTSE 100 fell 1.42% while Brent crude jumped 4.46% on Saudi output cuts.
- Markets price BoE on hold at 3.73% amid rising global inflation risks from energy.
Yesterday's Recap
Lloyds House Price Index MoM printed -0.2% against a +0.2% consensus, with the YoY measure at -0.4%. BRC Retail Sales YoY rose just 0.5%, below the 1.2% forecast and prior 1.0%. RICS House Price Balance improved to -28 versus expectations of -31.
Chancellor John Healey spoke without shifting policy signals. The FTSE 100 closed at 10,658.36, down 1.42%, and the FTSE 250 fell 0.84%. Sterling eased modestly, with GBP/USD at 1.35 and GBP/EUR at 1.16.
Brent crude surged to 105.72 on confirmed Saudi production cuts to the lowest level since 1990. The 10-year gilt yield moved lower, reflecting softer growth expectations. No MPC members spoke, leaving the data prints as the main domestic input.
The Day Ahead
High-impact UK data arrive at 22:00 ET, led by GDP MoM, expected flat after +0.3% prior. GDP 3-Month Avg is forecast at +0.3% versus +0.4% previously. Goods Trade Balance is seen narrowing to -£22.3 bn.
Industrial Production MoM is projected at -0.2%, matching the prior print. Manufacturing Production MoM is expected to rebound to +0.2% from -0.5%. Any material deviation in GDP could shift gilt yields and sterling crosses ahead of the weekend.
Markets will also monitor any follow-through from the Chancellor’s earlier remarks for clues on fiscal direction.
Other Economic Notes
Cooling house prices and soft retail figures point to subdued consumer momentum heading into autumn. UK CPI at 2.90% and unemployment at 4.90% leave the BoE with limited room to ease while energy prices climb. The 10-year gilt yield moved lower, reflecting lower growth expectations rather than policy relief.
Broader fiscal signals from the Chancellor remain focused on stability without new spending commitments that could pressure inflation. These prints reinforce the view that domestic demand is losing steam even as external energy shocks build.
