UK Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
BoE Signals Another Hike as GDP Eyed
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| FTSE 100 | 10,751.59 | -0.29% |
| FTSE 250 | 24,746.70 | +0.16% |
| GBP/USD | 1.33 | -0.74% |
| GBP/EUR | 1.20 | -0.21% |
| GBP/JPY | 211.87 | -0.23% |
| Brent Crude | 92.52 | +1.13% |
| Gold | 4,065.30 | +0.87% |
| UK Nat Gas | 3.29 | -0.24% |
| Bitcoin | 73,787.67 | -1.91% |
| UK 2Y Gilt | 4.56% | -1 bp |
| UK 10Y Gilt | 5.14% | +1 bp |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| BoE Gov Bailey Speech | - | - | - |
| BRC Retail Sales Monitor Year-over-Year | 1 | 1.20 | 1.10 |
| BoE Lombardelli Speech | - | - | - |
| BoE Pill Speech | - | - | - |
BoE Bank Rate | Type: macro_line | BoE Policy Rate (%): 4 (2026-11-05) | Range: 0.1–5.25 | Trend(5pt): 0.1,4,5.25,4,4
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| RICS House Price Balance | -32 | -32 | 19:01 |
| Thursday (2026-11-12) | |||
| GDP Growth Quarter-over-Quarter Preliminary | 0.50 | 0.70 | 02:00 |
| GDP Growth Year-over-Year Preliminary | 1.40 | 1.90 | 02:00 |
| GDP Month-over-Month | 0.10 | 0 | 02:00 |
| Business Investment Quarter-over-Quarter Prel | 1.80 | - | 02:00 |
| GDP 3-Month Avg | 0.70 | 0.70 | 02:00 |
| Goods Trade Balance | -18,010m | -19,200m | 02:00 |
| Goods Trade Balance Non-EU | -5,290m | - | 02:00 |
| Industrial Production Month-over-Month | 0.80 | -0.30 | 02:00 |
- BoE's Lombardelli flags another near-term rate rise; Bailey warns AI poses financial stability risks
- Sterling slips 0.74% to 1.33 as gilt curve steepens modestly; FTSE 100 down 0.29%
- Q3 GDP preliminary and monthly output data due Thursday; consensus sees 0.7% q/q growth
Yesterday's Recap
The BRC Retail Sales Monitor printed 1.1% year-over-year, below the 1.2% consensus and a touch softer than the prior 1.0% reading, underscoring subdued consumer momentum. Sterling came under pressure, with GBP/USD falling 0.74% to 1.33 and GBP/EUR easing 0.21% to 1.20, while GBP/JPY slipped 0.23% to 211.87. Gilt yields were mixed: the 2-year eased 1 bp to 4.56% while the 10-year added 1 bp to 5.14%, leaving the curve marginally steeper.
The FTSE 100 declined 0.29% to 10,751.59, though the domestically focused FTSE 250 edged up 0.16% to 24,746.70. Commodities were firmer, with Brent crude up 1.13% to $92.52 and gold gaining 0.87% to $4,065.30, while UK natural gas eased 0.24% to 3.29. Three high-impact BoE speeches — Bailey, Lombardelli and Pill — dominated the domestic narrative, with Lombardelli's hawkish tone the standout.
The Day Ahead
The near-term calendar is light, with the RICS House Price Balance due at 19:01 ET, expected to hold at -32, a level consistent with persistent weakness in the housing market. Attention then shifts to Thursday's heavy data slate, headlined by preliminary Q3 GDP, where consensus looks for 0.7% quarter-over-quarter and 1.9% year-over-year, up from 0.5% and 1.4% respectively. Monthly GDP is expected flat at 0.0% following 0.1% prior, while the 3-month average is seen steady at 0.7%.
Industrial and manufacturing production are forecast to contract 0.3% and 0.5% month-over-month respectively, a sharp reversal from prior gains. The goods trade balance is projected to widen to -£19.2bn from -£18.01bn, with business investment preliminary also on the docket.
Other Economic Notes
The UK growth outlook remains fragile, with Thursday's GDP print set to test whether the modest momentum implied by consensus can be sustained against weak industrial output and a widening trade deficit. NIESR forecasts inflation overshooting the BoE's 2% target for the next four years, keeping the policy path uncomfortably tight. Housing remains a soft spot, with the RICS balance stuck deep in negative territory.
The UK-Nigeria $750m infrastructure deal signals efforts to deepen trade and investment links, though its macro impact is marginal near term. Consumer resilience is questionable given the sub-consensus retail sales reading.
