US Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Services PMI, Waller Speech in Focus
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,483.24 | +0.00% |
| Nasdaq 100 | 29,329.21 | -1.61% |
| Dow Jones | 52,900.07 | +1.14% |
| Russell 2000 | 2,996.11 | -0.55% |
| USD/JPY | 162.31 | +0.53% |
| EUR/USD | 1.14 | -0.01% |
| GBP/USD | 1.33 | +0.01% |
| Gold | 4,166.80 | +1.32% |
| WTI Crude | 68.38 | -0.45% |
| Bitcoin | 62,782.60 | -1.20% |
| US 2Y Treasury | 4.17% | +0.72% |
| US 10Y Treasury | 4.48% | +0.90% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
10-Year Treasury Yield | Type: macro_line | 10Y Yield (%): 4.48 (2026-07-01) | Range: 1.19–4.98 | Trend(6pt): 1.33,3.67,3.95,4.17,4.44,4.48
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Services Sector PMI | 54.50 | 54 | 06:00 |
| Speech by Fed's Waller | - | - | 07:00 |
| Tuesday (2026-07-07) | |||
| ADP Employment Change Weekly | 30,750 | - | 04:15 |
| Exports Level | 327,100m | - | 04:30 |
| Imports Level | 383,000m | - | 04:30 |
| Trade Balance | -55,900m | -78,000m | 04:30 |
| API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks | -6.1m | - | 12:30 |
| Wednesday (2026-07-08) | |||
| MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate | 6.57 | - | 03:00 |
- June services PMI expected at 54.0 after 54.5 prior, testing resilience in consumer-facing activity amid 4.3% unemployment.
- Equities mixed post-holiday with Dow +1.14% and Nasdaq -1.61%; 10-year yield rose 0.90% to 4.48%.
- Fed funds rate steady at 3.63% as 2.31% CPI keeps policy on hold ahead of July FOMC minutes.
Yesterday's Recap
US markets reopened after the July 4 holiday with divergent equity performance. The Dow Jones advanced 1.14% to 52,900.07 while the Nasdaq 100 fell 1.61% to 29,329.21. Treasury yields climbed, with the 2-year rising 0.72% to 4.17% and the 10-year up 0.90% to 4.48%.
USD/JPY strengthened 0.53% to 162.31 as EUR/USD eased 0.01% to 1.14. Gold gained 1.32% to 4,166.80 while WTI crude slipped 0.45% to 68.38. Bitcoin declined 1.20% to 62,782.60.
No major data releases occurred on July 5, leaving price action driven by positioning ahead of the services PMI.
The Day Ahead
The June services PMI at 6:00 ET carries high impact with consensus at 54.0 versus 54.5 prior. Fed Governor Waller speaks at 7:00 ET on monetary policy. Tomorrow brings ADP employment, exports, imports and the trade balance.
FOMC minutes on July 8 will provide fresh guidance on the 3.63% fed funds rate. Markets will watch for any signals on the path of quantitative tightening. Oil inventory data midweek may influence energy prices.
Other Economic Notes
The 4.3% unemployment rate and 2.31% CPI indicate a labor market that remains balanced while inflation sits near target. Steady growth persists without overheating signals in the verified data. Treasury yields reflect expectations that the 3.63% policy rate will hold for several months.
Equity breadth has narrowed, with large-cap indices showing resilience despite higher borrowing costs. Broader activity measures point to moderate expansion rather than acceleration.
Global Macro News
Mexico and Canada are exploring alternatives after US officials declined to renew USMCA provisions. Brazil emerges as a potential US supply-chain partner given China's demographic decline of 500 million people over 30 years. US semiconductor encapsulants market analysis highlights ongoing domestic production priorities.
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