US Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Services PMI Softens, Equities Advance
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,537.43 | +0.72% |
| Nasdaq 100 | 29,697.87 | +1.26% |
| Dow Jones | 53,055.91 | +0.29% |
| Russell 2000 | 3,009.54 | +0.45% |
| USD/JPY | 161.87 | +0.26% |
| EUR/USD | 1.14 | +0.01% |
| GBP/USD | 1.34 | +0.22% |
| Gold | 4,159.60 | +0.11% |
| WTI Crude | 70.22 | +2.44% |
| Bitcoin | 63,172.72 | -1.28% |
| US 2Y Treasury | 4.14% | -0.72% |
| US 10Y Treasury | 4.49% | +0.22% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Services Sector PMI | 54.50 | 54 | 54 |
| Speech by Fed's Waller | - | - | - |
| ADP Employment Change Weekly | 24,250 | - | 21,000 |
| Exports Level | 327,100m | - | 317,700m |
| Imports Level | 383,000m | - | 395,300m |
| Trade Balance | -55,900m | -78,500m | -77,600m |
US Unemployment Rate | Type: macro_line | Percent: 4.2 (2026-06-01) | Range: 3.4–5.1 | Trend(6pt): 5.1,3.6,3.8,4.2,4.3,4.2
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks | -6.1m | -1.5m | 12:30 |
| Wednesday (2026-07-08) | |||
| MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate | 6.57 | - | 03:00 |
| EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventory | -3.8m | - | 06:30 |
| EIA Weekly Gasoline Inventory | -2.3m | - | 06:30 |
| FOMC Meeting Minutes | - | - | 10:00 |
| Thursday (2026-07-09) | |||
| Weekly Jobless Claims | 215,000 | 218,000 | 04:30 |
| Speech by Fed's Williams | - | - | 05:00 |
| Existing Home Sales | 4.2m | 4.2m | 06:00 |
- US services PMI prints 54.0 versus 54.0 consensus, extending cooling trend
- Equities rally with Nasdaq 100 up 1.26% and S&P 500 gaining 0.72%
- Two-year Treasury yield declines 0.72% to 4.14% while 10-year rises to 4.49%
Yesterday's Recap
The June services PMI released at 54.0, matching consensus but down from 54.5 prior, with activity and new orders components softening. Fed Governor Waller delivered remarks focused on data dependence without signaling immediate policy shifts. Equity markets responded positively, lifting the S&P 500 to 7,537.43 and Nasdaq 100 to 29,697.87.
The two-year Treasury yield fell to 4.14% while the 10-year edged higher to 4.49%. USD/JPY rose to 161.87 and WTI crude gained 2.44% to 70.22. Bitcoin declined 1.28% to 63,172.72 amid risk-on equity flows.
Trade balance data showed a narrower deficit of -77.6 billion dollars.
The Day Ahead
FOMC meeting minutes on July 8 will provide fresh detail on the committee’s assessment of inflation and labor conditions. Weekly jobless claims are due July 9 with consensus at 218,000. Existing home sales follow the same day, expected to rise modestly to 4.20 million.
EIA crude and gasoline inventory reports will update energy supply dynamics. MBA 30-year mortgage rate data will track borrowing costs ahead of housing figures. Markets will monitor any follow-up comments from Fed speakers scheduled mid-week.
Other Economic Notes
The Fed funds rate stands at 3.63% with CPI YoY at 4.17% and unemployment at 4.20%. Recent PMI readings continue to point to resilient but decelerating service-sector expansion. Equity gains remain concentrated in large-cap technology names while small caps lag.
Treasury yield curve steepening reflects shifting rate-cut expectations priced into futures. Energy prices have firmed on supply signals, supporting headline inflation measures.
Global Macro News
UK acquisition of IDB Invest shares signals continued multilateral engagement that indirectly supports dollar liquidity channels. German strategic oil reserve restocking adds to global diesel demand pressure, lifting WTI. Indonesia and Malaysia forex reserves reached multi-year highs, reducing near-term EM stress on USD crosses.
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