US Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
FOMC Minutes Loom After Trade Beat
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,503.85 | -0.45% |
| Nasdaq 100 | 29,173.02 | -1.77% |
| Dow Jones | 52,925.15 | -0.25% |
| Russell 2000 | 2,982.49 | -0.90% |
| USD/JPY | 162.54 | +0.28% |
| EUR/USD | 1.14 | -0.37% |
| GBP/USD | 1.33 | -0.47% |
| Gold | 4,072.00 | -1.77% |
| WTI Crude | 73.97 | +5.01% |
| Bitcoin | 62,208.11 | -1.72% |
| US 2Y Treasury | 4.13% | -0.24% |
| US 10Y Treasury | 4.48% | -0.22% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Services Sector PMI | 54.50 | 54 | 54 |
| Speech by Fed's Waller | - | - | - |
| ADP Employment Change Weekly | 24,250 | - | 21,000 |
| Exports Level | 328,200m | - | 317,700m |
| Imports Level | 382,800m | - | 395,300m |
| Trade Balance | -54,600m | -78,500m | -77,600m |
| API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks | -6.1m | -1.5m | -399,000 |
| MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate | 6.57 | - | 6.58 |
US Nonfarm Payrolls | Type: macro_line | Payrolls (thousands): 0.3193 (2026-06-01) | Range: 0.07327–5.192 | Trend(6pt): 4.611,3.612,1.629,0.6818,0.1975,0.3193
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventory | -3.8m | -1.9m | 06:30 |
| EIA Weekly Gasoline Inventory | -2.3m | - | 06:30 |
| FOMC Meeting Minutes | - | - | 10:00 |
| Thursday (2026-07-09) | |||
| Weekly Jobless Claims | 215,000 | 218,000 | 04:30 |
| Speech by Fed's Williams | - | - | 05:00 |
| Existing Home Sales | 4.2m | 4.2m | 06:00 |
| Existing Home Sales Month-over-Month | 3.20 | - | 06:00 |
| Speech by Fed's Logan | - | - | 09:30 |
- Services PMI eases to 54.0 while trade deficit widens to $77.6 billion but beats consensus
- Equities fall with Nasdaq 100 down 1.77 percent and WTI crude surging 5.01 percent
- Treasury yields decline modestly as markets await FOMC minutes
Yesterday's Recap
US services sector activity cooled slightly in June as the PMI printed 54.0 versus 54.5 previously. ADP weekly employment change came in at 21,000. The June trade balance widened to minus $77.6 billion from $54.6 billion previously, though better than the $78.5 billion consensus, driven by lower exports and higher imports.
Oil inventories via API showed a smaller-than-expected draw. Equity markets closed lower across the board with the S&P 500 off 0.45 percent and the Russell 2000 declining 0.90 percent. The 10-year Treasury yield fell 2 basis points to 4.48 percent while the dollar index rose modestly.
The Day Ahead
Attention centers on the June FOMC minutes at 10 a.m. ET, which will detail the committee’s assessment of inflation and labor market conditions. EIA crude and gasoline inventory figures follow at 6:30 a.m.
Tomorrow brings weekly jobless claims, a speech by New York Fed President Williams, and existing home sales data. Markets will parse any signals on the path of policy easing given the 3.63 percent federal funds rate. Geopolitical developments around Iran sanctions could also influence energy prices.
Other Economic Notes
The 4.20 percent unemployment rate and 4.17 percent May CPI continue to frame a labor market that remains resilient yet cooling. Mortgage rates edged up to 6.58 percent, pressuring housing affordability ahead of tomorrow’s existing home sales release. Oil prices have risen sharply on supply concerns, adding upside risk to headline inflation readings.
Broader equity weakness, especially in small caps, reflects caution ahead of the minutes.
Global Macro News
US strikes and reinstated Iran oil sanctions lifted WTI crude sharply higher, tightening global supply conditions. Germany’s oil stocking agency announced plans to refill strategic diesel reserves, adding further pressure to European fuel markets. The UK moved to acquire remaining shares in IDB Invest while Reform UK leader Nigel Farage resigned his mandate.
<i>↓ p.2</i>
