US Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Trade Deficit Narrows as Yields Rise
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,482.71 | -0.28% |
| Nasdaq 100 | 29,252.56 | +0.27% |
| Dow Jones | 52,348.39 | -1.09% |
| Russell 2000 | 2,956.39 | -0.88% |
| USD/JPY | 162.41 | +0.03% |
| EUR/USD | 1.14 | +0.27% |
| GBP/USD | 1.34 | +0.34% |
| Gold | 4,117.20 | +1.14% |
| WTI Crude | 73.74 | +0.30% |
| Bitcoin | 62,694.32 | +0.70% |
| US 2Y Treasury | 4.19% | +1.45% |
| US 10Y Treasury | 4.55% | +1.56% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Services Sector PMI | 54.50 | 54 | 54 |
| Speech by Fed's Waller | - | - | - |
| ADP Employment Change Weekly | 24,250 | - | 21,000 |
| Exports Level | 328,200m | - | 317,700m |
| Imports Level | 382,800m | - | 395,300m |
| Trade Balance | -54,600m | -78,500m | -77,600m |
| API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks | -6.1m | -1.5m | -399,000 |
| MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate | 6.57 | - | 6.58 |
| EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventory | -3.8m | -2.4m | 3.0m |
| EIA Weekly Gasoline Inventory | -2.3m | -1.6m | -1.9m |
US 10Y Treasury Yield | Type: macro_line | Percent: 4.55 (2026-07-07) | Range: 1.19–4.98 | Trend(6pt): 1.38,3.83,4.05,4.01,4.48,4.55
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Weekly Jobless Claims | 215,000 | 218,000 | 04:30 |
| Speech by Fed's Williams | - | - | 05:00 |
| Existing Home Sales | 4.2m | 4.2m | 06:00 |
| Existing Home Sales Month-over-Month | 3.20 | - | 06:00 |
| Speech by Fed's Logan | - | - | 09:30 |
- Services PMI eases to 54.0 versus 54.0 consensus
- Trade balance prints at -$77.6 billion, narrower than expected
- Equities mixed while 2-year and 10-year yields climb to 4.19% and 4.55%
Yesterday's Recap
US services sector PMI for June came in at 54.0, matching the consensus but below the prior 54.5 reading and signaling modest cooling in activity. The trade balance improved to -$77.6 billion against a -$78.5 billion consensus, driven by a sharper drop in exports to $317.7 billion than in imports. ADP employment change registered 21,000 for the week while mortgage rates edged up to 6.58%.
Equity markets closed mixed with the S&P 500 down 0.28% at 7,482.71 and the Dow Jones falling 1.09% to 52,348.39, while the Nasdaq 100 rose 0.27%. Treasury yields advanced, with the 2-year reaching 4.19% and the 10-year at 4.55%. Oil inventories showed a build of 2.998 million barrels per EIA data, pushing WTI crude to $73.74.
The Day Ahead
Weekly jobless claims are due at 8:30 a.m. ET with a consensus of 218,000 after last week's 215,000 print. Existing home sales are expected to rise to 4.20 million from 4.17 million, with the month-over-month change also in focus.
Fed's John Williams is scheduled to speak at 9:00 a.m. ET, offering potential guidance on policy. No FOMC minutes or major data releases follow immediately afterward.
Markets will watch for any signals on the path of the 3.63% fed funds rate.
Other Economic Notes
US CPI stood at 4.17% year-over-year as of May, while unemployment held at 4.20% in June, keeping the labor market in a balanced but softening posture. Rising 10-year yields to 4.55% reflect reduced expectations for near-term easing despite the cooler inflation print. Crude inventory builds and stable mortgage rates at 6.58% point to contained energy price pressures feeding into consumer costs.
Global Macro News
Renewed US strikes on Iran and reinstated oil sanctions have lifted geopolitical risk premiums, supporting gold at $4,117.20. The Strait of Hormuz tensions threaten Gulf supply routes and have already pushed WTI higher despite the domestic inventory build. Philippine and other Asian economies face secondary hits from higher energy costs tied to the conflict.
European and UK pension strains add to global fiscal concerns that could spill into US funding markets. <i>↓ p.2</i>
