US Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Home Sales Miss, Claims Ease; Equities Rise
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,543.64 | +0.81% |
| Nasdaq 100 | 29,727.10 | +1.62% |
| Dow Jones | 52,487.41 | +0.27% |
| Russell 2000 | 2,992.54 | +1.22% |
| USD/JPY | 161.71 | -0.51% |
| EUR/USD | 1.14 | -0.03% |
| GBP/USD | 1.34 | +0.01% |
| Gold | 4,109.30 | -0.52% |
| WTI Crude | 71.59 | -0.68% |
| Bitcoin | 63,840.84 | +1.02% |
| US 2Y Treasury | 4.21% | +0.48% |
| US 10Y Treasury | 4.56% | +0.22% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Services Sector PMI | 54.50 | 54 | 54 |
| Speech by Fed's Waller | - | - | - |
| ADP Employment Change Weekly | 24,250 | - | 21,000 |
| Exports Level | 328,200m | - | 317,700m |
| Imports Level | 382,800m | - | 395,300m |
| Trade Balance | -54,600m | -78,500m | -77,600m |
| API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks | -6.1m | -1.5m | -399,000 |
| MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate | 6.57 | - | 6.58 |
| EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventory | -3.8m | -2.4m | 3.0m |
| EIA Weekly Gasoline Inventory | -2.3m | -1.6m | -1.9m |
10-Year Treasury Yield | Type: macro_line | Yield (%): 4.56 (2026-07-08) | Range: 1.19–4.98 | Trend(6pt): 1.38,3.83,4.05,4.01,4.48,4.56
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
- Existing home sales fell to 4.09 million in June versus 4.20 million expected, with month-over-month decline of 2.4%.
- Initial jobless claims dropped to 215,000, below consensus of 218,000.
- S&P 500 advanced 0.81% to 7,543.64 while 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.56%.
Yesterday's Recap
Existing home sales printed at 4.09 million units in June, missing the 4.20 million consensus and reversing the prior month’s 3.7% gain with a 2.4% decline. Weekly jobless claims fell to 215,000, beating expectations of 218,000 and signaling continued labor-market resilience. The trade balance narrowed to minus 77.6 billion dollars, narrower than the 78.5 billion consensus, as imports reached 395.3 billion while exports slipped to 317.7 billion.
Equity markets responded positively, with the S&P 500 rising 0.81%, Nasdaq 100 surging 1.62%, and Russell 2000 adding 1.22%. Treasury yields edged higher, the 2-year reaching 4.21% and the 10-year 4.56%, while the dollar firmed modestly against the yen. Oil inventories surprised to the upside at plus 3.0 million barrels, pressuring WTI crude 0.68% lower to 71.59 dollars.
Mortgage rates ticked up one basis point to 6.58%, capping housing demand further.
The Day Ahead
Markets will monitor any follow-up commentary from Fed speakers Williams and Logan after their recent appearances. Oil inventory trends and mortgage-rate movements remain in focus following yesterday’s prints. Equity earnings season continues to drive sector rotation, with attention on productivity and AI-related capital spending.
Treasury auctions and any updates on fiscal flows could influence yield curves already anchored near 4.56% at the 10-year. Broader risk sentiment hinges on incoming inflation and employment data that will shape expectations around the 3.62% Fed funds rate.
Other Economic Notes
The 4.20% unemployment rate and 4.17% CPI print continue to frame a soft-landing baseline for policymakers. Elevated equity valuations at S&P 7,543 reflect optimism over productivity gains even as housing data soften. Treasury market pricing shows limited immediate pressure on the 3.62% policy rate despite mixed housing and labor signals.
Energy inventory builds and trade-balance narrowing highlight external demand weakness that could feed into future core PCE readings.
