US Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
CPI Data and Fed Speakers Loom
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,575.39 | +0.42% |
| Nasdaq 100 | 29,825.11 | +0.33% |
| Dow Jones | 52,637.01 | +0.29% |
| Russell 2000 | 2,977.81 | -0.49% |
| USD/JPY | 162.07 | -0.18% |
| EUR/USD | 1.14 | +0.05% |
| GBP/USD | 1.34 | -0.12% |
| Gold | 4,063.00 | -1.00% |
| WTI Crude | 73.89 | +3.47% |
| Bitcoin | 62,877.40 | -1.38% |
| US 2Y Treasury | 4.16% | -1.19% |
| US 10Y Treasury | 4.54% | -0.44% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Speech by Fed's Bowman | - | - | - |
US 10Y Treasury Yield | Type: macro_line | 10Y Yield %: 4.54 (2026-07-09) | Range: 1.19–4.98 | Trend(6pt): 1.37,3.93,4.02,4.26,4.56,4.54
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Speech by Fed's Waller | - | - | 08:30 |
| Monthly Budget Statement | -293,000m | -132,800m | 10:00 |
| Tuesday (2026-07-14) | |||
| ADP Employment Change Weekly | 21,000 | - | 04:15 |
| Core Inflation Rate Month-over-Month | 0.20 | 0.20 | 04:30 |
| Core Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 2.90 | 2.90 | 04:30 |
| Inflation Rate Month-over-Month | 0.50 | -0.10 | 04:30 |
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 4.20 | 3.80 | 04:30 |
| Consumer Price Index | 335.12 | 334.71 | 04:30 |
| Consumer Price Index SA | 333.98 | - | 04:30 |
- Equity indices advanced modestly with S&P 500 up 0.42% to 7,575.39 while 2-year yields fell 1.19% to 4.16%.
- June CPI data due tomorrow expected to show 3.8% y/y versus prior 4.2%, keeping policy rate at 3.62% in focus.
- Multiple Fed speakers including Warsh, Goolsbee and Cook scheduled for high-impact remarks on Tuesday.
Yesterday's Recap
US equity markets closed higher on July 12 with the S&P 500 rising 0.42% to 7,575.39, Nasdaq 100 gaining 0.33% and Dow Jones adding 0.29%. The Russell 2000 declined 0.49%. Treasury yields eased across the curve, with the 2-year note falling 1.19% to 4.16% and the 10-year declining 0.44% to 4.54%.
WTI crude surged 3.47% to $73.89 while gold dropped 1.00% to $4,063. USD/JPY eased 0.18% to 162.07. Fed Governor Bowman delivered medium-impact remarks with no new policy signals.
Unemployment stood at 4.20% and CPI at 4.17% y/y entering the period, leaving markets focused on incoming inflation prints rather than fresh data releases.
The Day Ahead
Fed Governor Waller speaks at 8:30 ET followed by the monthly budget statement at 10:00 ET, both carrying medium market impact. Tuesday brings the highest-density calendar with ADP employment, core CPI m/m and y/y, headline CPI and the full Consumer Price Index release all at 4:30 ET. Fed Chair Warsh testifies at 6:00 ET, Governor Barr speaks at 8:40 ET, President Goolsbee at 9:00 ET and Governor Cook at 9:30 ET.
Markets will parse the inflation prints against the 3.8% consensus to recalibrate rate-cut probabilities around the current 3.62% policy rate. The combination of data and senior Fed voices will drive 2-year and 10-year yield adjustments.
Other Economic Notes
The 4.20% unemployment rate continues to anchor labor-market assessments while the 4.17% CPI reading sets the baseline for tomorrow’s release. Treasury markets have priced limited near-term policy shifts given the 3.62% funds rate, with attention turning to whether core inflation moderates in line with the 0.2% consensus. Equity breadth remains narrow as large-cap indices outperform small caps, reflecting sector-specific AI and technology flows rather than broad macro improvement.
Fiscal data from the budget statement may highlight deficit trajectories that interact with the 4.54% 10-year yield level.
