US Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
CPI Cools to 3.5%, Equities Advance
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,543.59 | +0.38% |
| Nasdaq 100 | 29,586.29 | +1.10% |
| Dow Jones | 52,508.27 | +0.02% |
| Russell 2000 | 2,964.76 | +0.39% |
| USD/JPY | 162.34 | -0.06% |
| EUR/USD | 1.14 | +0.31% |
| GBP/USD | 1.34 | +0.38% |
| Gold | 4,034.50 | -0.65% |
| WTI Crude | 80.08 | +0.93% |
| Bitcoin | 64,615.90 | -0.52% |
| US 2Y Treasury | 4.26% | +1.19% |
| US 10Y Treasury | 4.62% | +1.32% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Speech by Fed's Bowman | - | - | - |
| Speech by Fed's Waller | - | - | - |
| Monthly Budget Statement | -293,000m | -132,800m | -120,000m |
| ADP Employment Change Weekly | 21,000 | - | 19,750 |
| Core Inflation Rate Month-over-Month | 0.20 | 0.20 | 0 |
| Core Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 2.90 | 2.80 | 2.60 |
| Inflation Rate Month-over-Month | 0.50 | -0.10 | -0.40 |
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 4.20 | 3.80 | 3.50 |
| Consumer Price Index | 335.12 | 334.70 | 333.95 |
| Consumer Price Index SA | 333.98 | - | 332.57 |
US CPI YoY (Headline) | Type: macro_line | CPI Index (YoY %): 3.727 (2026-06-01) | Range: 2.325–8.979 | Trend(6pt): 5.152,7.759,3.316,2.802,4.27,3.727
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Producer Price Index Month-over-Month | 1.10 | 0 | 04:30 |
| Core Producer Price Index Month-over-Month | 0.40 | 0.40 | 04:30 |
| NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | 5.70 | 8.80 | 04:30 |
| Speech by Fed's Williams | - | - | 04:45 |
| Fed Chair Warsh Testimony | - | - | 06:00 |
| EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventory | 3.0m | -2.6m | 06:30 |
| EIA Weekly Gasoline Inventory | -1.9m | -800,000 | 06:30 |
| Fed Cook Speech | - | - | 09:00 |
| Speech by Fed's Musalem | - | - | 14:30 |
- US CPI YoY slowed to 3.50% in June, beating consensus of 3.8%
- Nasdaq 100 rose 1.10% while S&P 500 gained 0.38% on disinflation data
- Fed Chair Warsh testifies on resolute inflation fight and balance sheet path
Yesterday's Recap
June CPI data delivered a clear downside surprise as headline inflation fell to 3.50% year-over-year from 4.2% previously and core CPI eased to 2.6% versus 2.9% prior. The monthly core print came in at zero against a 0.2% consensus, reinforcing the trend of underlying disinflation. Equities responded positively with the Nasdaq 100 climbing 1.10% to 29,586.29 and the S&P 500 advancing 0.38% to 7,543.59.
Treasury yields rose modestly, lifting the 2-year to 4.26% and the 10-year to 4.62%. The monthly budget statement showed a narrower deficit of $120 billion versus the $132.8 billion consensus. Multiple Fed speakers including Bowman, Waller, Barr, Goolsbee and Cook delivered remarks amid the data release, while ADP employment change printed 19,750.
Markets priced the softer inflation as supportive for the policy outlook. The 4.20% unemployment rate and 2.10% GDP growth provide a stable backdrop.
The Day Ahead
Fed Chair Warsh is scheduled to testify before the House Financial Services Committee on the state of the economy and inflation strategy. Additional high-impact remarks from Governor Cook and President Goolsbee will keep policy focus elevated through the session. Markets will monitor any fresh signals on the balance sheet runoff and forward guidance.
No major data releases are listed for the morning, shifting attention to congressional testimony and oil market developments tied to the Iran blockade. Equity futures point to a measured open after yesterday’s CPI-driven gains. Producer price index figures due tomorrow will offer further insight into pipeline pressures.
Other Economic Notes
Disinflation momentum remains intact with the June CPI print marking the third consecutive downside surprise relative to consensus. The 4.20% unemployment rate and 2.10% GDP growth provide a stable backdrop that allows the Fed to assess incoming data. Treasury markets reflect this balance, with the 10-year yield holding at 4.62% and the curve showing limited steepening.
Broader risk assets continue to price a soft-landing scenario supported by cooling price pressures and resilient corporate earnings. The verified 2.68% GDP growth rate year-over-year further anchors expectations for steady expansion without overheating.
