US Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
CPI Cools to 3.5% as Yields Slide
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,557.99 | +0.19% |
| Nasdaq 100 | 29,425.92 | -0.54% |
| Dow Jones | 52,690.98 | +0.35% |
| Russell 2000 | 2,978.10 | +0.45% |
| USD/JPY | 162.13 | -0.04% |
| EUR/USD | 1.15 | +0.33% |
| GBP/USD | 1.35 | +0.80% |
| Gold | 4,037.40 | -0.16% |
| WTI Crude | 79.60 | +0.00% |
| Bitcoin | 64,133.32 | -0.89% |
| US 2Y Treasury | 4.18% | -1.88% |
| US 10Y Treasury | 4.58% | -0.87% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Speech by Fed's Bowman | - | - | - |
| Speech by Fed's Waller | - | - | - |
| Monthly Budget Statement | -293,000m | -132,800m | -120,000m |
| ADP Employment Change Weekly | 21,000 | - | 19,750 |
| Core Inflation Rate Month-over-Month | 0.20 | 0.20 | 0 |
| Core Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 2.90 | 2.80 | 2.60 |
| Inflation Rate Month-over-Month | 0.50 | -0.10 | -0.40 |
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 4.20 | 3.80 | 3.50 |
| Consumer Price Index | 335.12 | 334.70 | 333.95 |
| Consumer Price Index SA | 333.98 | - | 332.57 |
US 10Y Treasury Yield | Type: macro_line | Yield %: 4.58 (2026-07-14) | Range: 1.19–4.98 | Trend(6pt): 1.19,4,3.96,4.48,4.62,4.58
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales Month-over-Month | 0.90 | 0.20 | 04:30 |
| Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index | 10.30 | 13 | 04:30 |
| Retail Sales Control Group Month-over-Month | 0.70 | 0.50 | 04:30 |
| Retail Sales Excluding Autos Month-over-Month | 0.80 | -0.10 | 04:30 |
| Weekly Jobless Claims | 215,000 | 217,000 | 04:30 |
| Business Inventories Month-over-Month | 0.50 | 0.30 | 06:00 |
| NAHB Housing Market Index | 35 | 35 | 06:00 |
| Pending Home Sales Month-over-Month | 3.80 | -0.50 | 06:00 |
| Pending Home Sales Year-over-Year | 4.80 | - | 06:00 |
| Speech by Fed's Logan | - | - | 08:30 |
- June CPI YoY fell to 3.5% versus 3.8% consensus, with core at 2.6%
- S&P 500 edged up 0.19% to 7,557.99 while Nasdaq 100 dropped 0.54%
- US 2Y Treasury yield fell to 4.18% and 10Y to 4.58% on softer prices
Yesterday's Recap
US inflation data released on July 14 showed headline CPI at 3.5% year-over-year, below the 3.8% consensus, while core CPI printed 2.6% against 2.8% expected. The monthly inflation rate declined 0.4%, exceeding forecasts for a 0.1% drop. The monthly budget statement posted a smaller deficit of $120 billion versus the $132.8 billion consensus.
Fed Chair Warsh testified on inflation measurement challenges, and governors Bowman, Waller, Barr, Goolsbee and Cook delivered speeches throughout the day. Equity markets closed mixed with the Dow Jones rising 0.35% to 52,690.98 and Russell 2000 gaining 0.45%, while the USD/JPY held near 162.13 and EUR/USD advanced 0.33% to 1.15. Gold slipped 0.16% to $4,037.40 amid the mixed risk tone.
ADP employment change came in at 19,750, slightly below the prior 21,000 reading.
The Day Ahead
Retail sales data scheduled for July 16 will provide the next read on consumer spending momentum after yesterday’s CPI surprise. Housing starts and building permits are also due and could influence rate-cut pricing if they undershoot expectations. Initial jobless claims will offer a timely labor-market update ahead of next week’s employment report.
No FOMC speakers are listed on the calendar, leaving markets to digest yesterday’s inflation figures and Warsh testimony. Treasury futures point to further modest yield declines if retail sales disappoint, while USD crosses may extend recent gains for EUR and GBP. The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing index is also due and may color views on regional activity.
Other Economic Notes
The Beige Book highlighted a robust US economy with an improving labor market, supporting the view that growth remains above potential. Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan noted resilient consumer spending despite affordability pressures, consistent with the 6.88% year-over-year retail sales trend through May. GDP growth registered 2.10% annualized in the first quarter and 2.68% on a year-over-year basis, providing a solid backdrop for the Fed’s current 3.63% policy rate.
Unemployment stands at 4.20%, still low enough to keep officials focused on inflation risks even after the latest CPI print. The smaller-than-expected budget deficit also eased some fiscal concerns.
