US Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Equities Slide as Yields Climb on Hawkish Fed
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,457.69 | -1.01% |
| Nasdaq 100 | 28,592.66 | -1.49% |
| Dow Jones | 52,146.42 | -0.77% |
| Russell 2000 | 2,962.22 | -0.42% |
| USD/JPY | 162.38 | +0.19% |
| EUR/USD | 1.14 | -0.08% |
| GBP/USD | 1.35 | -0.07% |
| Gold | 4,027.30 | +0.36% |
| WTI Crude | 81.82 | -0.81% |
| Bitcoin | 64,263.97 | -0.66% |
| US 2Y Treasury | 4.16% | +0.73% |
| US 10Y Treasury | 4.57% | +0.44% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
2Y vs 10Y Treasury Yield | Type: macro_line | 2Y Yield %: 4.16 (2026-07-16) | Range: 0.17–5.19 | Trend(6pt): 0.22,4.43,4.34,3.84,4.13,4.16 | 10Y Yield %: 4.57 (2026-07-16) | Range: 1.19–4.98 | Trend(6pt): 1.3,4.01,4.1,4.35,4.55,4.57
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tuesday (2026-07-21) | |||
| ADP Employment Change Weekly | 19,750 | - | 04:15 |
| API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks | -56,000 | - | 12:30 |
| Wednesday (2026-07-22) | |||
| MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate | 6.65 | - | 03:00 |
| EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventory | -1.7m | - | 06:30 |
| EIA Weekly Gasoline Inventory | -1.5m | - | 06:30 |
| Thursday (2026-07-23) | |||
| Chicago Fed National Activity Index | -0.10 | - | 04:30 |
| Weekly Jobless Claims | 208,000 | 212,000 | 04:30 |
- S&P 500 fell 1.01% to 7,457.69 while 10-year Treasury yields rose 4 basis points to 4.57%.
- US CPI at 3.46% and unemployment at 4.20% keep the Fed on hold at 3.63% funds rate.
- ADP employment data and S&P Global PMI flashes headline a quiet week before New Home Sales.
Yesterday's Recap
US equity markets closed lower on Friday with the S&P 500 declining 1.01% to 7,457.69, the Nasdaq 100 dropping 1.49% to 28,592.66, and the Dow Jones falling 0.77% to 52,146.42. Treasury yields advanced across the curve, lifting the 2-year note 3 basis points to 4.16% and the 10-year note 2 basis points to 4.57%. The dollar strengthened modestly against the yen, with USD/JPY rising 0.19% to 162.38, while EUR/USD eased 0.08% to 1.14.
Gold advanced 0.36% to $4,027.30 as investors sought safety amid the equity selloff. WTI crude slipped 0.81% to $81.82 and Bitcoin declined 0.66% to $64,263.97. No major economic releases occurred on Sunday, leaving market moves driven by positioning ahead of the coming week’s data slate and ongoing commentary from Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh.
The Day Ahead
Markets will focus on Tuesday’s ADP Employment Change Weekly release at 4:15 a.m. ET, which follows a prior reading of 19,750. API crude oil stock data arrives at 12:30 p.m.
ET. Wednesday brings the MBA 30-year mortgage rate at 3:00 a.m. ET and EIA inventory figures at 6:30 a.m.
ET. Thursday features the Chicago Fed National Activity Index at 4:30 a.m. ET alongside weekly jobless claims, expected at 212,000 versus the prior 208,000.
Friday delivers the S&P Global Composite, Manufacturing, and Services PMI flashes at 5:45 a.m. ET, followed by New Home Sales at 6:00 a.m. ET, with consensus calling for a rebound to 610,000 units from 580,000.
Other Economic Notes
US GDP expanded 2.10% annualized in the first quarter and 2.68% year-over-year, supported by resilient consumer spending that lifted retail sales 6.72% over the past twelve months. The 4.20% unemployment rate remains near historic lows, yet cooling CPI at 3.46% has tempered expectations for near-term policy easing. Treasury markets reflect this balance, with the 2-year yield holding at 4.16% and the 10-year at 4.57%, pricing in a prolonged period of restrictive policy.
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