US Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Durable Goods Rebound Eyed as Yields Climb
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,411.98 | +0.05% |
| Nasdaq 100 | 28,128.34 | -1.15% |
| Dow Jones | 51,947.25 | +0.46% |
| Russell 2000 | 2,930.00 | -0.35% |
| USD/JPY | 163.59 | -0.15% |
| EUR/USD | 1.14 | +0.19% |
| GBP/USD | 1.33 | +0.04% |
| Gold | 4,104.20 | +0.90% |
| WTI Crude | 83.26 | -6.77% |
| Bitcoin | 65,258.74 | -0.12% |
| US 2Y Treasury | 4.37% | +1.39% |
| US 10Y Treasury | 4.71% | +0.86% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
10-Year Treasury Yield | Type: macro_line | Percent: 4.71 (2026-07-23) | Range: 1.19–4.98 | Trend(6pt): 1.26,4.1,4.18,4.4,4.67,4.71
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Durable Goods Orders Month-over-Month | -4.50 | 2.50 | 04:30 |
| Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp Month-over-Month | 1.30 | 0.80 | 04:30 |
| Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index | 0 | - | 06:30 |
| Tuesday (2026-07-28) | |||
| ADP Employment Change Weekly | 16,500 | - | 04:15 |
| Goods Trade Balance Adv | -105,900m | -101,300m | 04:30 |
| Retail Inventories Ex Autos Month-over-Month Adv | 0.30 | - | 04:30 |
| Wholesale Inventories Month-over-Month Adv | 0.10 | 0.20 | 04:30 |
| S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Year-over-Year | 1.10 | 1.30 | 05:00 |
| Cb Consumer Confidence | 91.20 | - | 06:00 |
- Durable goods orders forecast to surge 2.5% after prior contraction
- Treasury yields rise with 2-year at 4.37% and 10-year at 4.71%
- Equities mixed as Nasdaq falls 1.15% while Dow gains 0.46%
Yesterday's Recap
US equity markets closed mixed on July 26 with the S&P 500 edging up 0.05% to 7,411.98 while the Nasdaq 100 declined 1.15% to 28,128.34 amid tech sector weakness. The Dow Jones advanced 0.46% to 51,947.25 and the Russell 2000 slipped 0.35%. Treasury yields increased across the curve, with the 2-year note reaching 4.37% and the 10-year note at 4.71%.
Oil prices fell sharply as WTI crude dropped 6.77% to 83.26, while gold rose 0.90% to 4,104.20. The dollar showed modest moves against major currencies, with EUR/USD advancing 0.19% to 1.14. No major economic data releases occurred yesterday, leaving market participants focused on positioning ahead of today's durable goods figures and ongoing inflation concerns at 3.46% year-over-year.
The Day Ahead
Attention centers on the 4:30 a.m. ET release of durable goods orders, expected to rebound 2.5% month-over-month following a 4.5% decline, alongside the ex-transportation component forecast at 0.8%. The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index will also print at 6:30 a.m.
ET. These high-impact releases will provide fresh signals on capital spending and regional factory activity. Market participants will assess whether the orders rebound supports views of resilient demand or instead reinforces concerns over sticky inflation.
No Federal Reserve speakers are scheduled, keeping focus squarely on the data prints and their implications for the 3.63% fed funds rate path.
Other Economic Notes
The labor market remains stable with unemployment at 4.20%, supporting consumer spending that has grown 6.72% year-over-year in retail sales. GDP expanded 2.10% on a quarterly annualized basis and 2.68% year-over-year, indicating moderate but steady expansion. These figures align with a backdrop where inflation at 3.46% continues to exceed the Federal Reserve's target, limiting room for near-term policy easing.
Inventory data due tomorrow, including wholesale and retail figures, will further clarify whether businesses are building stocks in anticipation of sustained demand or adopting a more cautious stance.
Global Macro News
New US tariffs ranging from 10% to 12.5% on imports from China, India, and the European Union have raised concerns over higher input costs and potential supply-chain disruptions. <i>↓ p.2</i>
