US Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
ISM Beats Lift Equities as Yields Rise
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,489.72 | +0.70% |
| Nasdaq 100 | 28,274.20 | +0.60% |
| Dow Jones | 52,485.03 | +0.53% |
| Russell 2000 | 2,931.34 | -0.50% |
| USD/JPY | 157.43 | -0.10% |
| EUR/USD | 1.15 | -0.12% |
| GBP/USD | 1.35 | -0.27% |
| Gold | 4,140.90 | +2.66% |
| WTI Crude | 75.67 | -5.81% |
| Bitcoin | 64,068.74 | +0.96% |
| US 2Y Treasury | 4.28% | +1.18% |
| US 10Y Treasury | 4.75% | +1.50% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISM Manufacturing PMI Index | 53.30 | 54 | 55.60 |
| ISM Manufacturing Employment Level | 49.70 | - | 52.80 |
10-Year Treasury Yield | Type: macro_line | Percent: 4.75 (2026-07-31) | Range: 1.23–4.98 | Trend(6pt): 1.23,4.1,3.87,4.25,4.68,4.75 | 2Y Yield %: 4.28 (2026-07-31) | Range: 0.2–5.19 | Trend(6pt): 0.21,4.61,4.2,3.7,4.23,4.28
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exports Level | 317,700m | - | 04:30 |
| Imports Level | 395,300m | - | 04:30 |
| Trade Balance | -77,600m | -73,000m | 04:30 |
| JOLTs Job Openings Level | 7.6m | 7.4m | 06:00 |
| Factory Orders Month-over-Month | -1.30 | 0.20 | 06:00 |
| API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks | 3.3m | -2m | 12:30 |
- ISM Manufacturing PMI jumps to 55.6, beating consensus
- S&P 500 rises 0.70% while 10Y yield climbs to 4.75%
- Gold gains 2.66% as WTI crude falls 5.81%
Yesterday's Recap
The ISM Manufacturing PMI Index rose to 55.6 in July, exceeding the 54.0 consensus and prior 53.3 reading, while the employment sub-index climbed to 52.8 from 49.7. Equity markets responded positively with the S&P 500 advancing 0.70% to 7,489.72, the Nasdaq 100 gaining 0.60%, and the Dow Jones adding 0.53%. The Russell 2000 lagged with a 0.50% decline.
Treasury yields increased sharply, lifting the 2Y to 4.28% and the 10Y to 4.75%. Gold surged 2.66% to $4,140.90 amid safe-haven demand, while WTI crude dropped 5.81% to $75.67. USD/JPY eased 0.10% to 157.43 as EUR/USD slipped 0.12%.
Broader context shows US GDP expanded at a 1.50% annualized rate in the first quarter with 2.10% year-over-year growth. The unemployment rate stands at 4.20% while CPI inflation registers 3.46% year-over-year. Retail sales rose 6.72% over the same period, supporting moderate consumer momentum.
The Fed funds rate remains at 3.63%. These readings point to resilient but cooling activity amid elevated policy rates.
The Day Ahead
Markets will focus on the June trade balance, expected to narrow to -$73 billion from -$77.6 billion, alongside exports and imports levels. JOLTs job openings are forecast to fall to 7.4 million from 7.594 million, providing a key labor-market signal. Factory orders are projected to rebound 0.2% month-over-month after a 1.3% decline.
API crude oil stock data will precede the EIA inventory release tomorrow. ADP employment figures and services PMI are also due, alongside a scheduled speech by Fed Governor Lisa Cook.
Other Economic Notes
US GDP expanded at a 1.50% annualized rate in the first quarter with 2.10% year-over-year growth. The unemployment rate stands at 4.20% while CPI inflation registers 3.46% year-over-year. Retail sales rose 6.72% over the same period, supporting moderate consumer momentum.
The Fed funds rate remains at 3.63%. These readings point to resilient but cooling activity amid elevated policy rates. Broader context shows US GDP expanded at a 1.50% annualized rate in the first quarter with 2.10% year-over-year growth.
The unemployment rate stands at 4.20% while CPI inflation registers 3.46% year-over-year. <i>↓ p.2</i>
