US Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
ADP Jobs Miss Sends Yields Lower
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,723.55 | -0.17% |
| Nasdaq 100 | 29,487.79 | -0.83% |
| Dow Jones | 54,349.12 | +0.49% |
| Russell 2000 | 3,019.19 | -0.59% |
| USD/JPY | 157.87 | +0.11% |
| EUR/USD | 1.15 | +0.12% |
| GBP/USD | 1.35 | +0.10% |
| Gold | 4,328.70 | +1.95% |
| WTI Crude | 75.97 | +1.00% |
| Bitcoin | 64,532.34 | -0.10% |
| US 2Y Treasury | 4.20% | -1.18% |
| US 10Y Treasury | 4.63% | -1.49% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISM Manufacturing PMI Index | 53.30 | 54 | 55.60 |
| ISM Manufacturing Employment Level | 49.70 | - | 52.80 |
| Exports Level | 317,600m | - | 314,700m |
| Imports Level | 395,300m | - | 388,000m |
| Trade Balance | -77,600m | -73,000m | -73,300m |
| JOLTs Job Openings Level | 7.5m | 7.4m | 7.4m |
| Factory Orders Month-over-Month | -1.10 | 0.20 | -0.30 |
| API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks | 3.3m | -2m | 2.7m |
| MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate | 6.76 | - | 6.81 |
| ADP Employment Change | 95,000 | 70,000 | 44,000 |
10-Year Treasury Yield (DGS10) | Type: macro_line | Percent: 4.63 (2026-08-04) | Range: 1.24–4.98 | Trend(6pt): 1.33,4.17,4.17,4.36,4.7,4.63
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nonfarm Productivity Quarter-over-Quarter Preliminary | 0.30 | 0.60 | 04:30 |
| Unit Labour Costs Quarter-over-Quarter Preliminary | 1.80 | 2.10 | 04:30 |
| Weekly Jobless Claims | 197,000 | 202,000 | 04:30 |
| Speech by Fed's Musalem | - | - | 13:30 |
| Friday (2026-08-07) | |||
| Payroll Jobs Growth | 57,000 | 80,000 | 04:30 |
| Unemployment Rate | 4.20 | 4.20 | 04:30 |
| Annual Wage Growth | 3.50 | 3.50 | 04:30 |
| Labor Force Participation | 61.50 | - | 04:30 |
| Monthly Wage Growth | 0.30 | 0.30 | 04:30 |
- US services activity held near consensus while private payrolls disappointed sharply.
- Treasury yields fell across the curve as markets priced softer labor momentum.
- Equities closed mixed with Nasdaq underperforming amid rotation into defensives.
Yesterday's Recap
US data on August 5 showed mixed momentum. ADP private employment rose just 44,000 versus 70,000 expected, marking the weakest print since early 2024. ISM Services PMI edged to 54.1 from 54.0, slightly below the 54.5 consensus.
The MBA 30-year mortgage rate climbed to 6.81 percent. Fed Governor Lisa Cook delivered remarks on the economic outlook at the Exchequer Club, reiterating data dependence without signaling near-term policy shifts. Markets reacted with the S&P 500 slipping 0.17 percent to 7,723.55 while the Nasdaq 100 fell 0.83 percent.
The 10-year Treasury yield dropped 1.49 percent to 4.63 percent and the 2-year yield declined 1.18 percent to 4.20 percent. Gold advanced 1.95 percent to $4,328.70 as investors sought safety. Trade data showed a narrower US deficit at $73.3 billion.
The Day Ahead
Attention turns to the preliminary nonfarm productivity release at 8:30 a.m. ET. Analysts will parse quarter-over-quarter growth for clues on labor-cost pressures.
No major Fed speakers are scheduled, leaving markets to digest recent comments from Governors Bowman and Jefferson. Treasury auctions include $58 billion in 10-year notes. Energy inventories from EIA will also be monitored after crude stocks unexpectedly rose.
Equity futures point to a cautious open as participants await further labor-market signals ahead of next week’s CPI. JOLTs job openings and factory orders from the prior session also warrant review for confirmation of cooling demand.
Other Economic Notes
Second-quarter GDP growth registered 1.50 percent annualized while the year-over-year pace stood at 2.10 percent. CPI inflation remained elevated at 3.46 percent year-over-year through June. The unemployment rate held at 4.20 percent, still near historic lows but showing gradual labor-market cooling.
Retail sales expanded 6.72 percent over the past year, supporting consumer resilience despite higher borrowing costs. These figures reinforce a soft-landing baseline while highlighting the need for continued policy vigilance. <i>↓ p.2</i>
