US Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Strong ISM Offsets ADP Jobs Miss
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,709.96 | -0.18% |
| Nasdaq 100 | 29,373.33 | -0.39% |
| Dow Jones | 53,885.10 | -0.85% |
| Russell 2000 | 3,001.55 | -0.58% |
| USD/JPY | 158.31 | +0.45% |
| EUR/USD | 1.15 | -0.22% |
| GBP/USD | 1.34 | -0.23% |
| Gold | 4,379.20 | +3.23% |
| WTI Crude | 76.90 | -0.50% |
| Bitcoin | 64,884.40 | +0.97% |
| US 2Y Treasury | 4.18% | -0.48% |
| US 10Y Treasury | 4.63% | +0.00% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISM Manufacturing PMI Index | 53.30 | 54 | 55.60 |
| ISM Manufacturing Employment Level | 49.70 | - | 52.80 |
| Exports Level | 317,600m | - | 314,700m |
| Imports Level | 395,300m | - | 388,000m |
| Trade Balance | -77,600m | -73,000m | -73,300m |
| JOLTs Job Openings Level | 7.5m | 7.4m | 7.4m |
| Factory Orders Month-over-Month | -1.10 | 0.20 | -0.30 |
| API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks | 3.3m | -2m | 2.7m |
| MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate | 6.76 | - | 6.81 |
| ADP Employment Change | 95,000 | 70,000 | 44,000 |
Nonfarm Payrolls Employment | Type: macro_line | Thousands of Persons: 0.3193 (2026-06-01) | Range: 0.07327–5.192 | Trend(6pt): 4.233,3.359,1.458,0.5785,0.2707,0.3193
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Payroll Jobs Growth | 57,000 | 80,000 | 04:30 |
| Unemployment Rate | 4.20 | 4.20 | 04:30 |
| Annual Wage Growth | 3.50 | 3.50 | 04:30 |
| Labor Force Participation | 61.50 | - | 04:30 |
| Monthly Wage Growth | 0.30 | 0.30 | 04:30 |
| Speech by Fed's Barkin | - | - | 06:00 |
- ISM Manufacturing PMI jumped to 55.6, beating consensus of 54.0
- ADP private payrolls rose just 44,000 versus 70,000 expected
- S&P 500 fell 0.18 percent while gold climbed 3.23 percent
Yesterday's Recap
US data showed resilient manufacturing alongside softening labor demand. The ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 55.6 in August, with the employment sub-index climbing to 52.8. Factory orders contracted 0.3 percent month-over-month, while the trade deficit narrowed to 73.3 billion dollars.
JOLTs job openings fell to 7.359 million, and ADP employment increased only 44,000. Services PMI edged up to 54.1, and the MBA 30-year mortgage rate reached 6.81 percent. Equity indices closed lower, with the S&P 500 at 7,709.96, Nasdaq 100 at 29,373.33, and Dow Jones at 53,885.10.
The 2-year Treasury yield held at 4.18 percent and the 10-year at 4.63 percent, while gold surged to 4,379.20 dollars per ounce. Nonfarm productivity rose 1.4 percent annualized, beating expectations.
The Day Ahead
Markets await the high-impact Payroll Jobs Growth release at 8:30 a.m. ET. Follow-up commentary from Federal Reserve speakers already on the calendar, including Lisa Cook’s economic outlook remarks, will also draw attention.
Oil inventory data and any updates on Strait of Hormuz negotiations may influence energy prices and USD crosses. Treasury auctions and corporate earnings releases could add incremental volatility. Investors will track any reaction to the latest Fed Board approvals of bank applications and the proposed modernization of insider lending rules.
Other Economic Notes
US GDP expanded 1.50 percent annualized in the first quarter and 2.10 percent year-over-year, while retail sales rose 6.72 percent over the same period. CPI inflation stood at 3.46 percent year-over-year through June, and the unemployment rate remained at 4.20 percent. These readings suggest moderate growth with contained price pressures, supporting expectations that the Fed Funds rate at 3.63 percent will stay on hold for several months.
Mortgage rates near 6.81 percent continue to weigh on housing activity, yet equity markets remain near record levels on resilient corporate earnings.
