US Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
CPI Data Looms Amid Equity Dip
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,728.20 | -0.32% |
| Nasdaq 100 | 29,525.48 | -0.33% |
| Dow Jones | 53,791.85 | -0.34% |
| Russell 2000 | 3,027.12 | +0.32% |
| USD/JPY | 159.15 | -0.00% |
| EUR/USD | 1.15 | -0.07% |
| GBP/USD | 1.35 | +0.02% |
| Gold | 4,469.40 | +1.97% |
| WTI Crude | 83.40 | +0.24% |
| Bitcoin | 64,152.16 | +0.94% |
| US 2Y Treasury | 4.25% | +1.43% |
| US 10Y Treasury | 4.72% | +1.51% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Speech by Fed's Hammack | - | - | - |
| ADP Employment Change Weekly | 11,000 | - | 8,250 |
| Existing Home Sales Level | 4.1m | 4.0m | 4.1m |
| Existing Home Sales Month-over-Month | -1.40 | - | -1.70 |
| MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate | 6.81 | - | - |
US 10-Year Treasury Yield | Type: macro_line | Percent: 4.72 (2026-08-10) | Range: 1.24–4.98 | Trend(6pt): 1.29,3.82,4.17,4.37,4.65,4.72
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Core Inflation Rate Month-over-Month | 0 | 0.20 | 04:30 |
| Core Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 2.60 | 2.50 | 04:30 |
| Inflation Rate Month-over-Month | -0.40 | 0.10 | 04:30 |
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 3.50 | 3.40 | 04:30 |
| Consumer Price Index | 333.95 | - | 04:30 |
| Consumer Price Index SA | 332.57 | - | 04:30 |
| EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventory | 2.5m | -500,000 | 06:30 |
| EIA Weekly Gasoline Inventory | -1.6m | -1.6m | 06:30 |
| Monthly Budget Statement | -120,000m | -346,000m | 10:00 |
- Existing home sales edge higher but miss consensus
- Equities fall as Treasury yields climb
- Core CPI release today could shift cut odds
Yesterday's Recap
Existing home sales reached 4,060,000 in July, slightly above the 4,050,000 consensus yet down 1.7 percent month-over-month from 4,130,000. ADP employment change printed 8,250 for the week, below the prior 11,000. The S&P 500 closed at 7,728.20, down 0.32 percent, while the Nasdaq 100 fell 0.33 percent to 29,525.48.
Gold rose 1.97 percent to 4,469.40 as investors sought safety. The US 2-year Treasury yield increased 1.43 percent to 4.25 percent and the 10-year yield rose 1.51 percent to 4.72 percent. The Russell 2000 gained 0.32 percent, bucking the broader equity decline.
WTI crude advanced 0.24 percent to 83.40. USD/JPY held at 159.15, EUR/USD at 1.15 and GBP/USD at 1.35. Bitcoin rose 0.94 percent to 64,152.16.
The Day Ahead
Core CPI month-over-month is expected at 0.2 percent after a flat prior reading, with the year-over-year rate seen at 2.5 percent versus 2.6 percent previously. Headline CPI month-over-month is forecast at 0.1 percent following a 0.4 percent drop, while the year-over-year figure is projected at 3.4 percent against 3.5 percent. The consumer price index itself and its seasonally adjusted version will also be released at 4:30 a.m.
ET. EIA crude and gasoline inventory data follow at 6:30 a.m. ET, with the monthly budget statement due at 10:00 a.m.
ET. Markets will parse the inflation prints for signals on the 3.63 percent Fed funds rate path. A softer-than-expected outcome could reinforce expectations for measured policy easing given the 4.10 percent unemployment rate and 1.50 percent first-quarter GDP growth.
Other Economic Notes
US GDP expanded 1.50 percent quarter-over-quarter annualized in the first quarter and 2.10 percent year-over-year, reflecting moderate underlying momentum. Retail sales grew 6.72 percent year-over-year through June, supporting consumer resilience despite higher borrowing costs. Unemployment stood at 4.10 percent in July, indicating a still-solid labor market that has cooled from earlier peaks.
These figures together suggest the economy is expanding at a below-trend pace that keeps inflation risks contained yet leaves room for policy caution. Treasury yields at current levels already embed expectations for measured easing ahead. The 3.46 percent CPI year-over-year reading from June remains the latest verified benchmark.
