US Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
CPI Aligns with Forecasts, Yields Ease
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,748.50 | +0.26% |
| Nasdaq 100 | 29,742.60 | +0.74% |
| Dow Jones | 53,770.27 | -0.04% |
| Russell 2000 | 3,045.48 | +0.61% |
| USD/JPY | 159.26 | +0.07% |
| EUR/USD | 1.15 | -0.06% |
| GBP/USD | 1.35 | -0.13% |
| Gold | 4,441.20 | +0.73% |
| WTI Crude | 81.60 | -2.01% |
| Bitcoin | 63,402.98 | +0.00% |
| US 2Y Treasury | 4.22% | -0.71% |
| US 10Y Treasury | 4.70% | -0.42% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Speech by Fed's Hammack | - | - | - |
| ADP Employment Change Weekly | 11,000 | - | 8,250 |
| Existing Home Sales Level | 4.1m | 4.0m | 4.1m |
| Existing Home Sales Month-over-Month | -1.40 | - | -1.70 |
| MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate | 6.81 | - | 6.77 |
| Core Inflation Rate Month-over-Month | 0 | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| Core Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 2.60 | 2.50 | 2.50 |
| Inflation Rate Month-over-Month | -0.40 | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 3.50 | 3.40 | 3.40 |
| Consumer Price Index | 333.95 | 333.99 | 333.92 |
10Y Treasury Yield | Type: macro_line | Yield %: 4.7 (2026-08-11) | Range: 1.24–4.98 | Trend(6pt): 1.26,3.88,4.17,4.45,4.72,4.7
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Speech by Fed's Hammack | - | - | 04:15 |
| Producer Price Index Month-over-Month | -0.30 | 0.20 | 04:30 |
| Core Producer Price Index Month-over-Month | 0.20 | 0.30 | 04:30 |
| Weekly Jobless Claims | 199,000 | 202,000 | 04:30 |
| Speech by Fed's Barkin | - | - | 04:40 |
- July CPI rose 3.4% YoY and core 2.5% YoY, matching consensus
- S&P 500 gained 0.26% while 10-year yield fell to 4.70%
- Existing home sales declined 1.7% MoM to 4.06 million units
Yesterday's Recap
US data releases showed July CPI at 3.4% YoY and core CPI at 2.5% YoY, both in line with forecasts and prior prints of 3.5% and 2.6%. Existing home sales fell to 4.06 million units, a 1.7% MoM drop that exceeded the expected decline. ADP employment change came in at 8,250, below the prior 11,000.
The monthly budget statement printed a $432 billion deficit, wider than the $346 billion consensus. Markets responded with the S&P 500 rising 0.26% to 7,748.50 and Nasdaq 100 advancing 0.74%, while the Dow slipped 0.04%. The 2-year Treasury yield declined to 4.22% and the 10-year to 4.70%.
Gold climbed 0.73% to $4,441.20 and WTI crude fell 2.01% to $81.60. Mortgage rates eased to 6.77% while crude inventories showed a large build.
The Day Ahead
Markets will focus on a speech by Fed Governor Hammack scheduled for 4:15 ET. No major data releases are due, leaving the focus on central bank commentary for fresh policy signals. Treasury auctions and any updates on fiscal developments could influence yields.
Equity traders will monitor tech earnings follow-through after recent outperformance. Oil inventory data from earlier in the week may continue to shape energy price direction amid global supply concerns. The 3.63% fed funds rate and 4.1% unemployment rate provide the backdrop for any remarks on growth at 2.1% YoY.
Other Economic Notes
US GDP grew 1.5% QoQ SAAR in the first quarter with 2.1% YoY expansion, reflecting moderate underlying momentum. Unemployment stood at 4.1% in July, consistent with a gradual labor market cooling. Retail sales rose 6.72% YoY through June, supporting consumer resilience despite higher borrowing costs.
The Fed funds rate at 3.63% anchors policy in restrictive territory. Mortgage rates eased to 6.77%, potentially providing modest support to housing activity going forward. The CPI print at 3.4% YoY keeps inflation on the verified path without altering the current policy stance.
Global Macro News
Escalating tensions in the Middle East, including US-Iran frictions and Pacific Fleet activity, kept oil markets volatile and supported gold prices. <i>↓ p.2</i>
