US Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
CPI Aligns With Forecasts, Equities Advance
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,798.99 | +0.65% |
| Nasdaq 100 | 30,084.50 | +1.15% |
| Dow Jones | 53,839.99 | +0.13% |
| Russell 2000 | 3,052.85 | +0.24% |
| USD/JPY | 159.33 | +0.04% |
| EUR/USD | 1.16 | +0.25% |
| GBP/USD | 1.35 | +0.24% |
| Gold | 4,408.80 | +1.04% |
| WTI Crude | 81.59 | +0.42% |
| Bitcoin | 62,764.12 | -1.01% |
| US 2Y Treasury | 4.20% | -0.47% |
| US 10Y Treasury | 4.68% | -0.43% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Speech by Fed's Hammack | - | - | - |
| ADP Employment Change Weekly | 11,000 | - | 8,250 |
| Existing Home Sales Level | 4.1m | 4.0m | 4.1m |
| Existing Home Sales Month-over-Month | -1.40 | - | -1.70 |
| MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate | 6.81 | - | 6.77 |
| Core Inflation Rate Month-over-Month | 0 | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| Core Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 2.60 | 2.50 | 2.50 |
| Inflation Rate Month-over-Month | -0.40 | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 3.50 | 3.40 | 3.40 |
| Consumer Price Index | 333.95 | 333.99 | 333.92 |
US 10Y Treasury Yield | Type: macro_line | Yield %: 4.68 (2026-08-12) | Range: 1.24–4.98 | Trend(6pt): 1.26,3.88,4.17,4.45,4.72,4.68
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales Month-over-Month | 0.20 | 0.10 | 04:30 |
| Retail Sales Control Group Month-over-Month | 0.50 | 0.30 | 04:30 |
| Retail Sales excluding Autos Month-over-Month | -0.20 | 0.20 | 04:30 |
| Speech by Fed's Venable | - | - | 05:00 |
| Michigan Consumer Sentiment Preliminary | 55.20 | 54.50 | 06:00 |
| Business Inventories Month-over-Month | 0.30 | 0.10 | 06:00 |
- July CPI rose 3.4% y/y and core 2.5% y/y, both matching consensus and showing modest cooling.
- S&P 500 gained 0.65% and Nasdaq 100 rose 1.15% as AI-related earnings lifted sentiment.
- US 10Y Treasury yield fell 4 bp to 4.68% while 2Y eased to 4.20%, pricing higher odds of a September cut.
Yesterday's Recap
US inflation data for July printed in line with forecasts, with the headline rate at 3.4% y/y and core at 2.5% y/y. Existing home sales declined 1.7% m/m to 4.06 million units, slightly softer than the 4.05 million consensus. The 30-year mortgage rate eased to 6.77%.
Equity markets responded positively, with the S&P 500 closing at 7,798.99 and the Nasdaq 100 at 30,084.50. Treasury yields declined across the curve as the data reinforced expectations for policy easing. Gold advanced 1.04% to 4,408.80 while WTI crude rose 0.42% to 81.59.
The dollar was little changed, with EUR/USD at 1.16. ADP employment showed an 8,250 weekly gain, consistent with gradual labor-market cooling. The monthly budget deficit reached 432 billion dollars, wider than the 346 billion consensus and underscoring ongoing fiscal pressures.
Retail sales growth of 6.72% y/y through June continued to signal consumer resilience even as borrowing costs remained elevated.
The Day Ahead
Retail sales month-over-month data, a high-impact release, are due at 4:30 a.m. ET and will provide the first read on August consumer spending. Markets will also monitor any follow-up commentary from Federal Reserve officials on yesterday’s inflation print.
Housing and manufacturing indicators later in the week could further shape September policy odds. Equity futures point to a steady open after yesterday’s gains in AI-exposed names. Treasury trading is expected to remain range-bound ahead of the next CPI update.
With the fed funds rate at 3.63%, participants will watch whether incoming figures sustain the recent shift in rate-cut probabilities.
Other Economic Notes
GDP expanded 1.50% q/q annualized in the first quarter with a 2.10% y/y pace, indicating moderate underlying momentum. Unemployment stood at 4.10% as of July, reflecting a still-solid but gradually softening labor market. These trends keep the focus on the balance between growth and disinflation.
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