US Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Housing Data Looms as Equities Ease
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,785.76 | -0.17% |
| Nasdaq 100 | 30,046.14 | -0.13% |
| Dow Jones | 53,732.41 | -0.20% |
| Russell 2000 | 3,068.42 | +0.51% |
| USD/JPY | 159.17 | -0.16% |
| EUR/USD | 1.16 | +0.52% |
| GBP/USD | 1.36 | +0.49% |
| Gold | 4,453.60 | +1.67% |
| WTI Crude | 82.63 | +0.28% |
| Bitcoin | 63,600.90 | +1.25% |
| US 2Y Treasury | 4.15% | -1.19% |
| US 10Y Treasury | 4.63% | -1.07% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
10Y Treasury Yield | Type: macro_line | Yield %: 4.63 (2026-08-13) | Range: 1.24–4.98 | Trend(6pt): 1.27,3.67,4.27,4.53,4.68,4.63
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | 15.60 | 11 | 04:30 |
| NAHB Housing Market Index | 34 | 33 | 06:00 |
| Net Long-Term TIC Flows Level | 232,700m | - | 12:00 |
| Tuesday (2026-08-18) | |||
| ADP Employment Change Weekly | 8,250 | - | 04:15 |
| Building Permits Preliminary | 1.4m | 1.4m | 04:30 |
| Housing Starts Level | 1.4m | 1.4m | 04:30 |
| Building Permits Month-over-Month Preliminary | -2.60 | - | 04:30 |
| Export Prices Month-over-Month | -0.60 | 0.20 | 04:30 |
| Housing Starts Month-over-Month | 19 | - | 04:30 |
- Empire State manufacturing and NAHB housing indices due today with expectations for moderation
- Equities closed lower while gold and Russell 2000 advanced on safe-haven flows
- Treasury yields declined with 2-year at 4.15% and 10-year at 4.63%
Yesterday's Recap
US equity markets closed modestly lower on August 16 with the S&P 500 falling 0.17% to 7,785.76 and the Dow Jones declining 0.20% to 53,732.41. The Nasdaq 100 slipped 0.13% while the Russell 2000 gained 0.51%, reflecting relative strength in smaller caps. Treasury yields moved lower with the 2-year falling 1.19% to 4.15% and the 10-year declining 1.07% to 4.63%.
Gold rose 1.67% to 4,453.60 and WTI crude added 0.28% to 82.63 amid reports of softening US growth signals. EUR/USD advanced 0.52% to 1.16 and GBP/USD rose 0.49% to 1.36 as the dollar eased. No major data releases occurred yesterday, leaving market moves driven by positioning ahead of this week’s housing and manufacturing prints.
USD/JPY eased 0.16% to 159.17 while Bitcoin gained 1.25% to 63,600.90.
The Day Ahead
The NY Empire State Manufacturing Index is scheduled for release at 4:30 ET with consensus at 11 after a prior reading of 15.6. The NAHB Housing Market Index follows at 6:00 ET with expectations for a 33 print versus 34 previously. Net Long-Term TIC Flows are due at noon.
Tomorrow brings high-impact housing starts and building permits data at 4:30 ET alongside industrial production and import-export prices. Markets will watch for any deviation in housing metrics that could alter views on rate-sensitive sectors given the current 4.1% unemployment rate. Pending home sales and API crude stocks round out the calendar.
Other Economic Notes
US GDP growth registered 1.5% QoQ SAAR and 2.1% YoY in the latest reading, pointing to moderate expansion. Retail sales rose 5.01% YoY, supporting resilience in consumer spending despite elevated rates. CPI inflation stands at 3.3% YoY, keeping the Fed on a data-dependent path with the policy rate at 3.63%.
Housing market indicators remain central as building permits and starts data approach, with potential to influence Treasury volatility. Broader themes center on whether softening growth prints will sustain the recent decline in yields.
