US Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Soft ISM, ADP Miss Lift Rate-Cut Odds
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,666.60 | +0.46% |
| Nasdaq 100 | 29,143.33 | +0.23% |
| Dow Jones | 53,061.95 | +0.56% |
| Russell 2000 | 2,953.17 | +1.13% |
| USD/JPY | 160.20 | +0.28% |
| EUR/USD | 1.16 | +0.09% |
| GBP/USD | 1.35 | -0.17% |
| Gold | 4,470.70 | +2.39% |
| WTI Crude | 92.89 | +2.07% |
| Bitcoin | 77,715.12 | +0.54% |
| US 2Y Treasury | 4.39% | +1.15% |
| US 10Y Treasury | 4.79% | +0.84% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index | 1.30 | - | 11.60 |
| Speech by Fed's Barr | - | - | - |
| ISM Manufacturing PMI Index | 55.60 | 55.20 | 54.60 |
| JOLTs Job Openings Level | 7.2m | 7.3m | 7.3m |
| ISM Manufacturing Employment Level | 52.80 | - | 51.20 |
| API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks | 4.2m | -800,000 | -2.6m |
| MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate | 6.78 | - | 6.79 |
| ADP Employment Change | 46,000 | 47,000 | 38,000 |
| Factory Orders Month-over-Month | -0.20 | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventory | 95,000 | -1.1m | -4.5m |
10-Year Treasury Yield | Type: macro_line | Percent: 4.79 (2026-09-01) | Range: 1.28–4.98 | Trend(6pt): 1.38,3.51,4.13,4.46,4.75,4.79 | 2Y Yield: 4.39 (2026-09-01) | Range: 0.21–5.19 | Trend(6pt): 0.22,4.34,4.54,3.96,4.34,4.39
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exports Level | 314,700m | - | 04:30 |
| Imports Level | 388,000m | - | 04:30 |
| Speech by Fed's Waller | - | - | 04:30 |
| Trade Balance | -73,300m | -90,000m | 04:30 |
| Weekly Jobless Claims | 203,000 | 205,000 | 04:30 |
| Services Sector PMI | 54.10 | 54.30 | 06:00 |
| Speech by Fed's Hammack | - | - | 11:00 |
- ISM Manufacturing PMI fell to 54.6, missing consensus and signaling slower factory activity.
- ADP private payrolls rose just 38k, well below expectations, while factory orders beat forecasts.
- Equities advanced and gold surged as softer data reinforced expectations for further Fed easing.
Yesterday's Recap
US data releases painted a mixed but softening picture for the labor market and manufacturing sector. The ISM Manufacturing PMI declined to 54.6 from 55.6, undershooting the 55.2 consensus. JOLTs job openings rose to 7.271 million, slightly below the 7.3 million consensus, while the ISM employment sub-index dropped to 51.2.
ADP employment change printed at 38k, missing the 47k consensus and pointing to continued cooling in hiring. Factory orders rose 0.9 percent month-over-month, beating the 0.6 percent forecast, and EIA crude inventories posted a sharp 4.45 million barrel draw. Equity indices closed higher, with the S&P 500 up 0.46 percent and the Russell 2000 gaining 1.13 percent, while the 10-year Treasury yield reached 4.79 percent amid the mixed signals.
The Day Ahead
Markets will focus on the August trade balance release due at 8:30 a.m. ET, which is expected to show a wider deficit than July’s $73.3 billion gap. Exports and imports levels will provide detail on goods and services flows.
Fed Governor Christopher Waller is scheduled to speak at 8:30 a.m. ET, offering fresh guidance on the labor market and inflation path. Traders will parse his remarks for any shift in the committee’s reaction function following the recent string of soft employment prints.
Oil inventory data and mortgage rate updates may also influence energy and housing sentiment.
Other Economic Notes
The Federal Reserve’s latest assessment indicates the economy has continued to expand at a moderate pace, consistent with the 1.50 percent annualized GDP growth recorded in the second quarter. Retail sales rose 5.01 percent year-over-year through July, supporting consumer resilience despite the 4.10 percent unemployment rate. Data-center construction and AI-related capital spending are increasingly driving measured output, offsetting weakness in traditional manufacturing.
Treasury yields remain elevated, with the 2-year at 4.39 percent, reflecting both fiscal supply and the market’s reassessment of the terminal rate. The 3.30 percent July CPI print continues to anchor expectations for measured policy easing.
