US Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Waller Remarks Ease Rate Hike Worries
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,747.71 | +1.06% |
| Nasdaq 100 | 29,482.32 | +1.16% |
| Dow Jones | 53,686.11 | +1.18% |
| Russell 2000 | 2,968.27 | +0.51% |
| USD/JPY | 158.92 | -0.79% |
| EUR/USD | 1.16 | +0.34% |
| GBP/USD | 1.35 | +0.36% |
| Gold | 4,521.70 | +0.67% |
| WTI Crude | 90.50 | -0.88% |
| Bitcoin | 81,128.25 | +4.95% |
| US 2Y Treasury | 4.39% | +0.00% |
| US 10Y Treasury | 4.79% | +0.00% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index | 1.30 | - | 11.60 |
| Speech by Fed's Barr | - | - | - |
| ISM Manufacturing PMI Index | 55.60 | 55.20 | 54.60 |
| JOLTs Job Openings Level | 7.2m | 7.3m | 7.3m |
| ISM Manufacturing Employment Level | 52.80 | - | 51.20 |
| API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks | 4.2m | -800,000 | -2.6m |
| MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate | 6.78 | - | 6.79 |
| ADP Employment Change | 46,000 | 47,000 | 38,000 |
| Factory Orders Month-over-Month | -0.20 | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventory | 95,000 | -1.1m | -4.5m |
10-Year Treasury Yield (DGS10) | Type: macro_line | Percent: 4.79 (2026-09-02) | Range: 1.28–4.98 | Trend(6pt): 1.38,3.51,4.13,4.46,4.75,4.79
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Payroll Jobs Growth | -23,000 | 56,000 | 04:30 |
| Unemployment Rate | 4.10 | 4.10 | 04:30 |
| Annual Wage Growth | 3.20 | 3 | 04:30 |
| Labor Force Participation | 61.40 | - | 04:30 |
| Monthly Wage Growth | 0.10 | 0.30 | 04:30 |
- Equities rally as Fed's Waller downplays near-term tightening
- July trade deficit widens to $88.6 billion on AI-driven imports
- August jobs data due today to clarify labor market trajectory
Yesterday's Recap
US equities posted strong gains on September 3, with the S&P 500 rising 1.06 percent to 7,747.71, the Nasdaq 100 advancing 1.16 percent to 29,482.32, the Dow Jones climbing 1.18 percent to 53,686.11, and the Russell 2000 adding 0.51 percent to 2,968.27. The July trade balance printed at minus $88.6 billion, narrower than the $90 billion consensus but wider than the prior $71.2 billion, as imports rose to $399.3 billion while exports fell to $310.7 billion. ISM Manufacturing PMI declined to 54.6 from 55.6, missing the 55.2 consensus, while JOLTs job openings reached 7.271 million versus 7.3 million expected.
ADP employment increased 38,000 against a 47,000 forecast, and factory orders rose 0.9 percent month-over-month, exceeding the 0.6 percent consensus. Fed Governor Waller spoke without delivering market-moving surprises, and the 2-year Treasury yield held at 4.39 percent with the 10-year at 4.79 percent.
The Day Ahead
August employment data at 8:30 ET will include nonfarm payrolls, the unemployment rate, and average hourly earnings, directly shaping expectations for the September FOMC meeting. Consensus calls for 56,000 jobs added, a 4.1 percent unemployment rate, and 0.3 percent monthly wage growth. No Fed speakers are scheduled, leaving the focus squarely on the labor print and any revisions to prior months.
Oil inventory data and mortgage rate updates may provide secondary color on energy and housing. Markets will watch for signs that the recent mixed ADP and JOLTs readings foreshadow a softening trend or a rebound.
Other Economic Notes
The July trade gap reached its widest level since March 2025, driven explicitly by imports tied to AI infrastructure buildout rather than broad consumer demand. Mixed manufacturing and labor signals, including the ISM employment component falling to 51.2 and ADP missing estimates, suggest the labor market is cooling gradually without abrupt deterioration. Factory orders beating forecasts indicate underlying business investment remains resilient despite higher financing costs at the current 3.63 percent fed funds rate.
Broader data show GDP growth at 1.5 percent annualized in the first quarter and retail sales up 5.01 percent year-over-year through July, supporting a soft-landing baseline.
