US Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Oil Surges, Yields Ease Ahead of CPI
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,718.60 | -0.38% |
| Nasdaq 100 | 29,544.15 | +0.21% |
| Dow Jones | 53,414.25 | -0.51% |
| Russell 2000 | 2,975.65 | +0.25% |
| USD/JPY | 154.25 | -1.25% |
| EUR/USD | 1.16 | +0.02% |
| GBP/USD | 1.35 | +0.08% |
| Gold | 4,444.50 | +0.33% |
| WTI Crude | 93.95 | +2.70% |
| Bitcoin | 78,505.50 | -0.77% |
| US 2Y Treasury | 4.34% | -1.14% |
| US 10Y Treasury | 4.77% | -0.42% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
US 10-Year Treasury Yield | Type: macro_line | Percent: 4.77 (2026-09-03) | Range: 1.28–4.98 | Trend(6pt): 1.3,3.48,4.09,4.4,4.79,4.77
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| ADP Employment Change Weekly | 11,750 | - | 04:15 |
| Wednesday (2026-09-09) | |||
| MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate | 6.79 | - | 03:00 |
| API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks | -2.6m | - | 12:30 |
| Thursday (2026-09-10) | |||
| Producer Price Index Month-over-Month | 0 | 0.40 | 04:30 |
| Core Producer Price Index Month-over-Month | 0.20 | 0.30 | 04:30 |
| Weekly Jobless Claims | 206,000 | 205,000 | 04:30 |
| Existing Home Sales Level | 4.1m | 4.0m | 06:00 |
| Existing Home Sales Month-over-Month | -1.70 | - | 06:00 |
- Equities mixed as Nasdaq 100 rose 0.21% while S&P 500 fell 0.38%
- WTI Crude jumped 2.70% to 93.95 on supply signals
- 10-year Treasury yield declined to 4.77% with softer rate expectations
Yesterday's Recap
US markets closed mixed on September 7 with no economic data releases scheduled. The S&P 500 declined 0.38% to 7,718.60 while the Nasdaq 100 advanced 0.21% to 29,544.15. The Dow Jones fell 0.51% to 53,414.25 and the Russell 2000 gained 0.25% to 2,975.65.
WTI Crude rose 2.70% to 93.95 and gold increased 0.33% to 4,444.50. Bitcoin slipped 0.77% to 78,505.50. Treasury yields declined with the 2-year note at 4.34% and the 10-year at 4.77%.
The dollar weakened against the yen to 154.25 while EUR/USD edged higher to 1.16.
The Day Ahead
The ADP Employment Change Weekly at 04:15 ET represents the sole US release today. Attention shifts to Thursday's Producer Price Index expected at 0.4% month-over-month alongside core PPI at 0.3% and weekly jobless claims near 205,000. Existing home sales are forecast at 3.99 million units.
Friday brings the full CPI report with core inflation projected at 0.2% month-over-month and 2.4% year-over-year. Markets will parse these prints for implications on the 3.63% fed funds rate and Treasury curve. Oil inventory data from API and EIA will also influence energy prices.
Other Economic Notes
US GDP expanded 1.50% quarter-over-quarter annualized in the latest reading with year-over-year growth at 2.10%. Unemployment stands at 4.10% while retail sales rose 5.01% year-over-year. These figures point to moderate expansion amid cooling labor conditions.
Inflation measured by CPI reached 3.30% year-over-year in July. The combination supports a data-dependent policy stance at the Federal Reserve. Treasury markets priced limited near-term easing given persistent price pressures.
Global Macro News
China's August exports surged 25% driving the trade surplus to a record high and supporting global commodity demand. Japan's foreign reserves dropped a record $80 billion in August after yen intervention. The UK drew criticism from the US and Israel over planned sanctions on West Bank goods.
Trump threatened to block US sales of Bombardier jets unless production moves stateside escalating Canada trade tensions. ↓ p.2
