US Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
PPI Matches Forecasts as CPI Looms
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,591.70 | -0.58% |
| Nasdaq 100 | 29,103.51 | -1.08% |
| Dow Jones | 52,064.10 | -0.60% |
| Russell 2000 | 2,890.95 | -1.04% |
| USD/JPY | 153.95 | +0.25% |
| EUR/USD | 1.16 | -0.33% |
| GBP/USD | 1.35 | -0.33% |
| Gold | 4,383.80 | +0.44% |
| WTI Crude | 98.84 | -3.55% |
| Bitcoin | 76,960.00 | +0.51% |
| US 2Y Treasury | 4.43% | +0.91% |
| US 10Y Treasury | 4.83% | +0.63% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate | 6.79 | - | 6.85 |
| ADP Employment Change Weekly | 10,000 | - | 12,000 |
| API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks | -2.6m | -1.3m | -300,000 |
| Producer Price Index Month-over-Month | 0.10 | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| Core Producer Price Index Month-over-Month | 0.30 | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| Weekly Jobless Claims | 207,000 | 205,000 | 206,000 |
| Existing Home Sales Level | 4.1m | 4.0m | 4.0m |
| Existing Home Sales Month-over-Month | -1.70 | - | -2 |
| EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventory | -4.5m | -1.6m | -391,000 |
| EIA Weekly Gasoline Inventory | -1.2m | -1.4m | 1.3m |
US PPI YoY | Type: macro_line | PPI YoY %: 9.85 (2026-08-01) | Range: -9.417–22.69 | Trend(6pt): 22.37,6.861,-1.447,0.5502,9.801,9.85
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Core Inflation Rate Month-over-Month | 0.20 | 0.20 | 04:30 |
| Core Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 2.50 | 2.40 | 04:30 |
| Inflation Rate Month-over-Month | 0.10 | 0.40 | 04:30 |
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 3.40 | 3.40 | 04:30 |
| Consumer Price Index | 333.92 | 334.85 | 04:30 |
| Consumer Price Index SA | 332.81 | - | 04:30 |
| Michigan Consumer Sentiment Preliminary | 51.70 | 51 | 06:00 |
| Monthly Budget Statement | -432,000m | -404,000m | 10:00 |
- US producer prices rose 0.4% MoM in line with consensus while core PPI cooled to 0.2%.
- Equities fell and Treasury yields climbed ahead of today's CPI release.
- Existing home sales matched expectations at 3.98 million units, down 2% MoM.
Yesterday's Recap
Producer prices advanced 0.4% month-over-month, matching forecasts and accelerating from the prior 0.1% gain, while core PPI printed 0.2% against a 0.3% consensus. Weekly jobless claims registered 206,000, nearly in line with the 205,000 expected. Existing home sales held at the 3.98 million consensus level and declined 2% month-over-month.
API and EIA crude inventories showed smaller draws than projected, contributing to a 3.55% drop in WTI Crude to 98.84. The S&P 500 fell 0.58% to 7,591.70, the Nasdaq 100 dropped 1.08% to 29,103.51, and the Dow Jones declined 0.60% to 52,064.10. The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.83% and the 2-year yield reached 4.43%, with USD/JPY advancing 0.25% to 153.95.
Gold gained 0.44% to 4,383.80 amid the mixed inflation signals.
The Day Ahead
Core CPI month-over-month is expected at 0.2% and headline CPI at 0.4%, with year-over-year rates forecast at 2.4% core and 3.4% headline. Markets will scrutinize the CPI print for implications on the 3.63% Fed funds rate and near-term policy path. Treasury, equity, and FX volatility is likely to increase following the 8:30 a.m.
ET release. Analysts will compare outcomes against the July 3.4% year-over-year CPI benchmark already in place.
Other Economic Notes
Housing market data showed continued contraction in existing sales, consistent with elevated 4.83% 10-year yields constraining affordability. Broader retail sales growth of 5.01% year-over-year supports consumer resilience despite 4.1% unemployment. Producer price moderation in core categories offers limited relief on underlying cost pressures ahead of the GDP growth reading of 1.5% quarter-over-quarter.
Trade frictions with Canada threaten supply-chain costs in key states, adding to domestic inflation risks already reflected in 2.1% year-over-year GDP expansion.
Global Macro News
US-Canada trade tensions escalated with warnings of economic fallout in midterm states, raising tariff-related cost concerns for US manufacturers. ↓ p.2
