Stocks Near Records; Yields Grind Higher Into CPI

RoboMacro ResearchAlso todaySee the VIX Daily

Stocks Near Records; Yields Grind Higher Into CPI

S&P 5007,811.54+0.59%

US 10Y Treasury5.24%+2 bp

WTI Crude92.85+1.09%

Gold4,201.80-0.34%

Market Snapshot

Asset	Level	Change
S&P 500	7,811.54	+0.59%
Nasdaq 100	30,883.15	+0.51%
Dow Jones	51,654.95	+0.83%
Russell 2000	2,806.98	+0.46%
USD/JPY	158.06	+0.00%
EUR/USD	1.12	-0.29%
GBP/USD	1.32	+0.02%
Gold	4,201.80	-0.34%
WTI Crude	92.85	+1.09%
Bitcoin	83,358.20	-0.38%
US 2Y Treasury	4.80%	+5 bp
US 10Y Treasury	5.24%	+2 bp

Prior Economic Events

Data	Prior	Cons	Actual
No events available

Today's Economic Events

Data	Prior	Cons	Time
Fed Hammack Speech	-	-	12:50

Tuesday (2026-10-13)
Speech by Fed's Waller	-	-	03:45
ADP Employment Change Weekly	23,750	-	08:15
Existing Home Sales	4.0m	4.0m	10:00
Existing Home Sales Month-over-Month	-2	-	10:00
Speech by Fed's Barkin	-	-	13:00
Monthly Budget Statement	-167,000m	-28,000m	14:00
Speech by Fed's Collins	-	-	16:00

Wednesday (2026-10-14)

Wall Street closed Friday near record highs, with the S&P 500 up 0.59% to 7,811.54 and the Dow gaining 0.83% to 51,654.95, as investors positioned for Wednesday's CPI and the start of earnings season.
Treasury yields firmed, with the 2-year up 5 bp to 4.80% and the 10-year up 2 bp to 5.24%, while Fed funds sits at 3.88% and markets brace for a heavy week of Fed speaker appearances.
Trump escalated pressure on the Fed, establishing a committee of inquiry into Governor Lisa Cook, adding a political dimension to this week's policy commentary from Hammack, Waller, Barkin, Collins and Bowman.

Yesterday's Recap

Friday's session was a broad risk-on advance, with the S&P 500 closing within reach of record territory after a 0.59% gain to 7,811.54. The Dow outperformed, rising 0.83% to 51,654.95, while the Nasdaq 100 added 0.51% to 30,883.15 and the Russell 2000 gained 0.46% to 2,806.98. Small-cap participation alongside the mega-cap complex suggested the rally was not narrowly concentrated.

Rates ground higher rather than lower: the 2-year yield rose 5 bp to 4.80% and the 10-year added 2 bp to 5.24%, a modest steepening that signals investors are hedging against a firmer inflation print this week. In currency markets, the dollar softened against the euro with EUR/USD up 0.29% to 1.12, while sterling was essentially flat at 1.32 and USD/JPY held at 158.06. Gold slipped 0.34% to $4,201.80 as real-yield pressure and profit-taking weighed on the metal after its strong run.

WTI crude bucked the softer tone, rallying 1.09% to $92.85. Bitcoin eased 0.38% to $83,358, and the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment deterioration on cost-of-living concerns provided a downbeat macro undertone beneath the equity strength.

The Day Ahead

Monday's calendar is light, with Cleveland Fed President Hammack speaking at 12:50 p.m. ET the sole high-impact event. Tuesday brings a far busier slate: Waller speaks at 3:45 a.m., weekly ADP employment change prints at 8:15 a.m.

following a prior 23,750, and existing home sales at 10 a.m. are expected to hold roughly flat at 3.96 million annualized versus 3.98 million previously. Barkin speaks at 1 p.m., the Monthly Budget Statement follows at 2 p.m.

with the deficit expected to narrow sharply from September's $167 billion, and Collins closes the day at 4 p.m. The week's centerpiece arrives Wednesday with September CPI at 8:30 a.m., where consensus looks for headline inflation of 0.6% month-over-month and core of 0.2%, with the core year-over-year rate seen ticking up to 2.5% from 2.4%. Bowman speaks Wednesday morning as well, and the MBA mortgage rate survey will be scrutinized with 30-year rates at 7.49%.

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Other Economic Notes

The consumer picture is deteriorating at the margin even as headline growth holds up. University of Michigan sentiment has now fallen for three consecutive months, with director Joanne Hsu noting consumers have been "loud and clear" about struggles with higher prices — a meaningful signal with CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and the labor market at 4.2% unemployment. Retail sales growth of 5.36% year-over-year suggests spending remains resilient, but the composition bears watching as price effects fade.

Apollo's Torsten Slok flagged a structural concern, arguing the AI investment boom is triggering a form of "Dutch disease" in the US economy, concentrating gains in a narrow technology complex. The Fed's release of the 2025 Survey of Consumer Finances this week will offer a granular look at household balance sheets, timely given elevated rates and equity concentration.

Global Macro News

Global developments remain largely supportive of the US risk tone. Wall Street's advance mirrored strength abroad, with European and Asian equities firm and investors rotating into earnings-sensitive exposure. In Canada, the central bank published analysis showing lower immigration is reshaping the economy's trajectory, a structural supply-side shift with implications for North American labor dynamics.

In Latin America, Gold Reserve filed a response in the Citgo appeal supporting Venezuela's request for abeyance, subject to US support — a development bearing on the restructuring of a major US-refining asset. ↓ p.3

Continuation

Global Macro News (continued)

Fitch revised Nigeria's outlook to positive on improved reserves, while Eritrea appealed to the United Nations to intervene in its standoff with Ethiopia over Tigray, a low-level but persistent geopolitical risk. Japan's personal spending continued to weaken, keeping pressure on the Bank of Japan's normalization path and anchoring USD/JPY near 158.

Fed Watch

The Fed finds itself in a politically charged holding pattern with the funds rate at 3.88%. President Trump established a committee of inquiry Friday into Governor Lisa Cook over statements on her financial disclosures, the latest step in an effort to remove her from the board — a novel test of Fed independence that markets will watch for precedent. The heavy speaker slate this week offers officials a platform to shape expectations ahead of the next FOMC meeting.

Hammack, Waller, Barkin, Collins and Bowman collectively represent a spectrum from hawkish regional presidents to governors closer to the chair's thinking, and any divergence on the timing of further easing will move the front end. With core CPI seen ticking up to 2.5% year-over-year, the data argue against near-term cuts, and the 2-year's 5 bp rise Friday suggests markets are already paring easing bets. The steady 3.88% funds rate and a 5.24% 10-year yield leave a steep curve that prices in both elevated term premium and a slower normalization path.

Watch for speakers to emphasize the balance between cooling inflation progress and still-solid growth, with the Survey of Consumer Finances and budget statement offering supplementary color on fiscal and household dynamics. Any comment on the Cook situation from Fed officials would be a fresh catalyst.

US Macro Daily(Beta Mode)