The volatility regime screens High and the futures curve is in contango. The session's largest standardised moves were VXN 28.50 (+3.32); GVZ 26.1 (+3.4). The composite risk-on/risk-off score reads 0.32 (risk-on), -0.11 on the session. That was largest one-day S&P 500 drop in 102 sessions.
Dashboard
Metric
Latest
Session
Context
S&P 500
7,580.07
-140.32
-1.82% on the session
VIX
19.42
+2.22
+12.91% on the session
Regime band
High
—
252d percentile 77%
VIX / VIX3M
0.935
—
above 1 is backwardation
Risk-on / risk-off
+0.32
-0.11
26th percentile, 1y
Expected move
±1.10%
+0.30
to 2026-11-02, options-implied
25-delta skew, 1m
5.88
+0.75
vol points, put over call
Same-day expiry share
62.1%
-4.3
of session option volume
Volatility regime score
63.9
—
Unsettled · 0-100, higher is more stress
Levels & Expected Move
Expected move
±84 (1.10%)
to 2026-11-02, 3d · ATM IV 12.2%
Peak OI strikes
7,200 / 7,850
put / call, 2026-11-02 · call -150, put -300
Assumed dealer gamma
-153,202
indicative · no sign change within the near-dated book
Derived from the S&P 500 option chain at the prior close. The expected move is implied-volatility derived, not read from a straddle price. The gamma figure assumes the dealer side of every contract and is indicative only — that side is not observable in public data.
Today's Focus
The volatility regime shifted from Normal to High.
VIX regime — last 30 sessionsVIX regime — last 30 sessions | Current regime: High (2026-10-30) | 30 sessions | Distribution: Very Low 43%, Low 17%, Normal 20%, High 17%, Very High 3% | Source: Cboe
This session produced the largest one-day S&P 500 drop in 102 sessions.
S&P 500 vs VIX — last 60 sessions · S&P 500 7,580.07 · VIX 19.42S&P 500 vs VIX — last 60 sessions | Latest: 7580 (2026-10-30) | Range: 7552–7819 | Source: Cboe, S&P Dow Jones Indices | Trend(6pt): 7753,7712,7650,7765,7744,7580 | VIX: 19.42 (range 14.21–19.99)
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Scenarios
The VIX closed at 19.42 in the 15-20 band. Every figure below is the historical frequency for sessions that opened in that band — a record of what happened, not a forecast of what will.
Next session, the VIX…
Frequency
Sample
stays in 15-20
83.0%
n=1,731
moves to 20-30
8.9%
n=185
moves to <15
8.1%
n=169
S&P 500 from here
Median
Worst 5%
Sample
next session
+0.06%
-2.00%
n=2,084
5 sessions
+0.36%
-4.29%
n=2,080
Risk Window
US high-impact releases and major central-bank events, for the sessions ahead.
November 2, 2026
ISM Manufacturing PMI10:00 · United Statescons. 54.7
Regime band High (252d percentile 77%); VIX level 19.42 (z-score +0.43 (252d)); Vol-of-everything composite 0.7187 z (breadth 100% above 1y median) [delayed].
S&P 500 vs VIX — last 30 sessionsS&P 500 vs VIX — last 30 sessions | Latest: 7580 (2026-10-30) | Range: 7580–7819 | Source: Cboe, S&P Dow Jones Indices | Trend(6pt): 7765,7652,7812,7713,7720,7580 | VIX: 19.42 (range 14.21–19.99)VIX regime — last 30 sessionsVIX regime — last 30 sessions | Current regime: High (2026-10-30) | 30 sessions | Distribution: Very Low 43%, Low 17%, Normal 20%, High 17%, Very High 3% | Source: Cboe
Metric
Latest
As of
Regime band252d percentile 77%
High
2026-10-30
VIX levelz-score +0.43 (252d)
19.42
2026-10-30
Vol-of-everything compositedelayedbreadth 100% above 1y median
Constant-maturity VIX curve — now vs a week and a month agoConstant-maturity VIX curve — now vs a week and a month ago | Today (Oct 30): VIX1D=19.33,VIX9D=19.25,VIX=19.42,VIX3M=20.78,VIX6M=22.2 | 1 week ago (Oct 23): VIX1D=16.81,VIX9D=18.7,VIX=19.45,VIX3M=20.48,VIX6M=21.96 | 1 month ago (Sep 30): VIX1D=12.2,VIX9D=14.2,VIX=16.34,VIX3M=18.37,VIX6M=20.35 | Source: Cboe
Metric
Latest
As of
VIX / VIX3Mcontango, streak 144d
0.9346
2026-10-30
Short-end stressVIX1D vs VIX 19.42; no short-end stress
HY OAS 3.26 pp (HYG/LQD 0.743) [delayed]; MOVE 100.2 (OVX 58.5, GVZ 26.1); Risk-on/off score 0.3151 z (risk-on — equal-weight blend of five cross-asset ratios — small vs large caps, cyclicals vs defensives, high-yield vs investment-grade credit, copper vs gold, and stocks vs bonds — each standardised over a rolling year. Scale is standard deviations from neutral: 0 is neutral, positive is risk-on, negative is risk-off).
Biggest session movers · move in σ — each series against its own 12-month daily rangeBiggest session movers | S&P 500: -2.443σ, VXN: 2.014σ, GVZ: 1.927σ, VXX: 1.82σ, VIX3M: 1.601σ, Nikkei VI: 1.549σ, MOVE: 1.518σ, VIX: 1.499σ | Range: -2.443σ–2.014σ | Source: Cboe, FRED, ICERisk-on / risk-off score · σ from neutral · above the zero line is risk-onRisk-on / risk-off score | Latest: 0.3151z (2026-10-30) | Range: -0.3339z–1.61z | Source: FRED, Cboe | Trend(5pt): 0.0976,0.7903,1.174,1.556,0.3151
Metric
Latest
As of
HY OASdelayedHYG/LQD 0.743
3.26 pp
2026-10-29
MOVEOVX 58.5, GVZ 26.1
100.2
2026-10-30
Risk-on/off scorerisk-on — equal-weight blend of five cross-asset ratios — small vs large caps, cyclicals vs defensives, high-yield vs investment-grade credit, copper vs gold, and stocks vs bonds — each standardised over a rolling year. Scale is standard deviations from neutral: 0 is neutral, positive is risk-on, negative is risk-off
VIX futures COT (net non-commercial z) -0.6863 z (percentile 25%; VXX 19.21; VIX put/call 0.33; Fear & Greed 26); Days since last spike 151 days (VIX 19.42 vs 50d MA 16.18 / 200d MA 18.26; 21d realized vol 11.8 vs VIX 19.4).
Days since last spikeVIX 19.42 vs 50d MA 16.18 / 200d MA 18.26; 21d realized vol 11.8 vs VIX 19.4
151 days
2026-10-30
Volatility Regime Score
Composite
63.9
Unsettled · 6 components
0-100, the mean of each component's own one-year percentile, oriented so higher is more volatility stress. Each component is ranked against its own past year, so a reading can be calm in absolute terms and still sit high against its own recent range.
Component
Value
Own 1y %ile
Stress %ile
VIX / VIX3Mabove 1 is backwardation — near-term fear bid over longer-dated
0.94
82
82
Variance risk premiumimplied minus realized — a wide premium is the calm state
7.58
77
23(inverted)
VVIX / VIXthe price of convexity — rising means hedging the hedge
5.48
38
38
Risk-on / risk-offcross-asset appetite — positive is risk-on
0.32
26
74(inverted)
Cross-asset vol breadthhow broadly volatility is elevated across asset classes
0.72
74
74
25-delta skew (1m)what downside protection costs over upside, in vol points
5.88
92
92
What to watch
For context, the S&P 500 sits 3.05% below its 12-month high and the VIX is -0.03 points over five sessions.
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The VIX Daily lands before the US open with the previous session's close, what the options market is pricing, and the week's scheduled risk. Free.