| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| JCI | 7,106.84 | +1.20% |
| SET | 1,417.45 | -1.62% |
| KLCI | 1,720.71 | -0.53% |
| PSEi | 6,018.62 | -0.61% |
| STI | 4,967.61 | -0.69% |
| USD/IDR | 16,977.00 | +0.03% |
| USD/THB | 32.46 | +0.43% |
| USD/MYR | 3.94 | +0.34% |
| USD/PHP | 59.73 | +0.83% |
| USD/SGD | 1.28 | +0.02% |
| Brent Crude | 103.02 | -4.06% |
| Gold | 4,651.90 | -4.87% |
| Bitcoin | 70,326.50 | -1.29% |
| Indonesia 10Y Govt Yield | - | - |
| Thailand 10Y Govt Yield | - | - |
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Central Bank Interest Rate Decision | 4.75 | 4.75 | 4.75 |
| Inflation Rate Month-over-Month | 0.10 | - | 0.20 |
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 1.60 | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
Bank Indonesia held its BI-Rate steady at 4.75%, aligning with consensus, to defend the rupiah against global headwinds including Fed signals and geopolitical tensions, as reports noted tightened FX rules to rein in speculation and dollar outflows. Malaysia's February inflation data showed a 0.2% MoM rise and 1.4% YoY increase, below the prior 1.6% YoY, signaling easing price pressures despite Mideast conflict risks to oil. Indonesian stocks outperformed, with the JCI up 1.20% to 7,106.84, supported by BI's stability focus, while Thailand's SET dropped 1.62% to 1,417.45 amid forecasts of oil prices exceeding $100 impacting 2026 GDP by 0.2-0.7%.Malaysia's KLCI fell 0.53% to 1,720.71, balancing inflation relief with USD strength, and the Philippines' PSEi declined 0.61% to 6,018.62 as currency depreciation weighed on remittance sectors. Singapore's STI slipped 0.69% to 4,967.61, pressured by export sensitivities. Currencies mostly weakened against the USD: USD/IDR edged up 0.03% to 16,977.00 despite BI measures, USD/THB rose 0.43% to 32.46, USD/MYR increased 0.34% to 3.94, USD/PHP climbed 0.83% to 59.73, and USD/SGD ticked up 0.02% to 1.28.Brent crude fell 4.06% to $103.02, gold dropped 4.87% to $4,651.90, and Bitcoin declined 1.29% to $70,326.50, reflecting risk-off sentiment.
No major economic releases are scheduled today across ASEAN markets, providing space to absorb yesterday's BI decision and Malaysian inflation data. Focus may turn to global developments, such as Mideast conflicts potentially driving oil volatility, influencing regional inflation and growth outlooks. Tomorrow's calendar is also empty, which could result in subdued trading amid reports of holiday-thinned liquidity affecting currencies like the rupiah.Investors will watch FX dynamics, especially for signs of central bank interventions in pairs like USD/IDR and USD/MYR, alongside any US data or Fed remarks that could spill over to ASEAN flows.
ASEAN economies are advancing supply chain shifts, with Malaysia and Vietnam attracting FDI in electronics and semiconductors via "China+1" strategies amid global slowdowns. Elevated oil prices, already above $100 for Brent, threaten net importers like Thailand, with projections of 0.2-0.7% GDP cuts in 2026 from further spikes. (cont...)
Tourism rebound in Thailand and steady remittances in the Philippines help buffer against Indonesia's commodity fluctuations, while ringgit gains to a five-year high versus the SGD support Malaysia's external position.
Brent crude slid 4.06% to $103.02 despite Mideast tensions raising risks of higher prices, which could elevate import costs for ASEAN energy importers like Indonesia and the Philippines. USD strength continued to pressure emerging currencies, including ASEAN pairs, following hawkish Fed cues that dampened regional markets. Gold fell 4.87% to $4,651.90 as safe-haven appeal faded, and Bitcoin dropped 1.29% to $70,326.50 in a risk-averse environment.Philippine central bank officials are monitoring Mideast conflict effects on inflation and growth, while Malaysian reports highlight ringgit firmness against the USD and SGD amid softer oil. Nigeria's balance of payments declined 38.1% in 2025, underscoring vulnerabilities from outflows similar to ASEAN challenges. Canada's central bank flagged worsening growth due to economic slowdowns and risks, mirroring trade concerns in Singapore.These factors highlight policy challenges amid geopolitical and US rate uncertainties.
Bank Indonesia maintained the BI-Rate at 4.75% to protect the rupiah from volatility, with new FX rules tightening dollar-buying to address speculation and outflows, marking a hawkish stance. Bank of Thailand is implementing stricter cash withdrawal checks from April 1, mandating ID verification for transactions over 5 million baht to bolster oversight, amid baht pressures and oil-related GDP risks without rate adjustments. Bank Negara Malaysia benefits from February's 1.4% YoY inflation dip, aiding ringgit advances to a five-year high against the SGD, while tracking Mideast impacts without policy changes.Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas is closely watching global oil shocks from conflicts for inflation and economic effects, relying on remittance resilience while holding rates steady. Monetary Authority of Singapore manages via exchange rate bands, keeping USD/SGD stable at 1.28 to mitigate imported inflation. State Bank of Vietnam prioritizes dong stability and reserves amid manufacturing strength, with no recent shifts but readiness for FX tweaks if flows weaken.Divergences persist, with BI's defensiveness contrasting watchful approaches elsewhere.