Merval Slides, Peso Firms as Oil Rallies

RoboMacro ResearchAlso todaySee the US Macro Daily

Merval Slides, Peso Firms as Oil Rallies

MERVAL2,824,123.00-2.51%

USD/ARS1,517.00-0.24%

EUR/ARS1,699.65-0.67%

Gold4,152.50+0.28%

Market Snapshot

Asset	Level	Change
MERVAL	2,824,123.00	-2.51%
USD/ARS	1,517.00	-0.24%
EUR/ARS	1,699.65	-0.67%
Gold	4,152.50	+0.28%
Brent Crude	104.22	+4.01%
Soybean	1,293.25	-0.33%
Bitcoin	82,798.32	-0.57%
Argentina 10Y	-	-

Prior Economic Events

Data	Prior	Cons	Actual
No events available

Today's Economic Events

Data	Prior	Cons	Time
No events available

Merval fell 2.51% to 2,824,123 while the peso strengthened 0.24% to 1,517/USD.
Brent crude surged 4.01% to $104.22, a tailwind for Vaca Muerta producers and energy-linked fiscal revenues.
No scheduled data releases; attention shifts to BCRA communication and IMF programme milestones.

Yesterday's Recap

Argentine equities gave back ground on Wednesday, with the Merval closing down 2.51% at 2,824,123 as profit-taking followed the recent rally in domestically weighted names. The currency market was the bright spot: USD/ARS slipped 0.24% to 1,517, with the peso also firming 0.67% against the euro at 1,699.65, suggesting orderly conditions in the official market and continued confidence in the crawling peg path. The strength came despite a choppy global backdrop, indicating local flows and carry dynamics are currently dominating.

In commodities, Brent crude jumped 4.01% to $104.22, a meaningful positive for Argentina's energy complex, where shale output from Vaca Muerta continues to scale and higher realized prices bolster export receipts and royalty revenues for provinces like Neuquén. Soybeans edged 0.33% lower to $1,293.25, a modest headwind for the agricultural export complex that remains the country's dominant source of hard currency. Gold rose 0.28% to $4,152.50, while Bitcoin fell 0.57% to $82,798, reflecting mild risk aversion in global crypto and commodity proxies.

The calendar was thin on scheduled Argentine data, leaving price action in the peso and equities as the primary signals for macro watchers.

The Day Ahead

Thursday's domestic calendar is similarly light, with no major official statistics scheduled for release, keeping the focus on secondary indicators and institutional communication. Market participants will monitor the BCRA's daily money market operations for signals on liquidity management and the trajectory of the monetary stance, particularly given recent global volatility in rate expectations. Peso liquidity conditions and the pace of LECAP and bond placements at the weekly treasury auctions will be watched for signs of demand from banks and institutional investors.

The parallel exchange rate spread versus the official rate remains a key gauge of confidence in the stabilization programme, and any widening would draw attention. Internationally, the surge in Brent to $104.22 has implications for Argentina's terms of trade and the energy account, given the country's growing profile as a net hydrocarbons exporter. Soybean prices near $1,293 will frame expectations for the upcoming harvest and farmer selling behavior, which drives the seasonal pattern of dollar inflows.

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The Day Ahead (continued)

With the IMF programme review cycle ongoing, any statements from the fund or the economy ministry on fiscal targets would be market-moving.

Other Economic Notes

Argentina's macro stabilization effort continues to hinge on the interplay between fiscal consolidation, reserve accumulation, and disinflation. The latest official reading put consumer price inflation at 33.5% year-on-year as of August, a level that, while far below the crisis peaks of prior years, still constrains the BCRA's room to ease aggressively. The fiscal anchor remains the centrepiece of the programme, with the primary balance target underpinning credibility with the IMF and international bondholders.

Energy exports are increasingly a structural offset to agricultural cyclicality, as Vaca Muerta volumes ramp and pipeline capacity expands, improving the current account profile. The challenge ahead is translating stabilization into a durable investment recovery, which requires deeper local capital markets and a predictable regulatory framework.

Global Macro News

Global central banks are pivoting back toward tightening, a shift with direct read-throughs for Argentine assets. India's central bank raised its repo rate 25 basis points to 5.50%, its first hike since 2023, citing inflation pressures from the Middle East conflict, and HSBC and Goldman expect another move in December. Kenya's central bank held at 8.75% as inflation rises, while Sweden's Riksbank kept a hike in play amid sticky inflation, and Philippine bonds are suffering as the worst EM performers since the Iran war began.

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Continuation

Global Macro News (continued)

The common thread is that energy-driven inflation is forcing emerging market policymakers to delay or reverse easing cycles, tightening global financial conditions. Bank of America's Savita Subramanian argued bonds may outperform stocks over the next decade, noting equities face a genuine rival in fixed income for the first time in decades, a view with implications for the valuation of high-carry sovereigns like Argentina. Meanwhile, Bangladesh reported GDP growth more than doubling to 4.6% year-on-year in the April-June quarter, and Nigeria's naira stabilized in official windows.

For Argentina, the key transmission channels are oil prices, which boost export receipts, and global risk appetite, which governs access to the eurobond curve.

BCRA Watch

The central bank has been navigating a delicate balance between supporting disinflation and accommodating growth, with the 33.5% August inflation print still well above any reasonable target band. Recent communication has emphasized the crawling peg as the nominal anchor, and Wednesday's firming of the official rate to 1,517/USD suggests the regime is functioning without stress. The BCRA's challenge is that global rate dynamics have turned less friendly: with the RBI hiking and the Riksbank signaling more tightening, the relative carry advantage of peso instruments narrows if the bank holds while peers move.

Look for the monetary authority to maintain a data-dependent stance, prioritizing reserve accumulation under the IMF programme over premature rate cuts. Any signal on the pace of crawling peg deceleration would be the single most market-sensitive disclosure, given its direct impact on the peso carry trade that has anchored local fixed income demand. The surge in Brent complicates the picture modestly, as pass-through from fuel prices could firm the inflation trajectory and justify a more cautious easing bias in upcoming minutes.

Argentina Macro Daily(Beta Mode)